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In Texas a shooter goes to the side of a barn and fires 20 shots. He then finds 5 hits that are next to each other and draws a bull eye around it and claims to be a sharpshooter. This joke is the basis of what is called the “Texas sharpshooter fallacy”.
The assertion of sharpshooting cannot be replicated but the evidence is there for all to see. And the evidence blinds us to ask the most important question – future replicability.
Similar sharpshooting happens in investing all the time. Here are some example you may come across: 1. Showing and talking about winning trades on social media to get people to sign up for expensive investing courses or option seminars. 2. Promoting thematic baskets that have done well recently as evidence of skill to charge high fees. 3. Bragging about multi-bagger stocks in parties for social gratification (w/o disclosing portfolio allocation or stock portfolio returns). |
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