In this edition, we talk about the hectic dealmaking in India’s insurance sector. We also talk about the growing corporate interest in wires and cables manufacturing, RBI’s latest assessment of the economy and the US Fed’s policy meeting.
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There are worse things in life than death. Have you ever spent an evening with an insurance salesman? – Woody Allen
The American filmmaker, actor and comedian might have been joking around but his comment will surely strike a chord with millions of people, even in India where a vast majority of people don’t have insurance.
Taking out an insurance policy can be an arduous task, what with dozens of companies and hundreds of products to choose from. The insurance industry doesn’t make it any easier either, and mis-selling—where insurance agents sell you policies you don’t need because they get higher commissions—is rampant.
Still, insurance products for life, health, property, and other products such as cars and bikes are now among the most critical parts of our lives. That explains the enduring interest of corporate houses in this sector. And several developments over the past few days have proved it yet again. So, here’s a quick recap of all that happened.
Bajaj Finserv and its German partner Allianz are breaking up after staying in business together since 2001, the year the Indian government opened up the insurance sector and allowed 26% foreign direct investment.
Allianz is selling its 26% stake in its life insurance and general insurance joint ventures with Bajaj for around 2.6 billion euros, or about Rs 24,180 crore. It said that it will explore new opportunities in India, but didn’t say what those could be. However, speculation is rife that Allianz could now tie up with billionaire Mukesh Ambani’s Jio Financial Services.
In another significant development, yoga guru Baba Ramdev’s Patanjali Ayurved teamed up with Dharampal Satyapal Group to buy Magma General Insurance from vaccine king Adar Poonawalla at a valuation of Rs 4,500 crore. The deal marks the insurance foray of Patanjali, which has expanded into FMCG and medicines over the past decade, and DS Group, the corporate house behind Catch spices, Pulse toffees, Rajnigandha mouth fresheners, and Tulsi tobacco.
Meanwhile, the UK-based Prudential Plc has formed a health insurance joint venture with HCL Group. Prudential, which already has a life insurance JV with ICICI Bank, will hold a 70% stake in the new company while HCL’s Vama Sundari Investments will own the rest. Separately, Life Insurance Corp’s CEO said this week India’s biggest insurance company hopes to decide on buying a stake in a health insurance company by the end of this month while IndusInd International Holdings Ltd, which has acquired Reliance Capital, said it intends to list R-Cap’s insurance units within two to three years.
All in all, the insurance industry has had a few busy days. Action could heat up further if and when Jio and Allianz unveil their partnership and as more companies explore the path ahead after the government said in this year’s budget that it would increase the FDI limit in insurance to 100% from 74% for companies which invest the entire premium in India.
For common folks like us, though, this corporate dealmaking shouldn’t deflect our attention from the critical task at hand—get insurance, if you don’t already have, to protect your health and the health and well-being of your loved ones.
It’s All Wired
Insurance isn’t the only sector going through a churn. Another sector which is seeing action is wires and cables manufacturing.
In our newsletter dated March 1, we noted UltraTech’s entry into this sector and wondered why the Aditya Birla Group’s flagship cement company was getting into a new business at a time when it was locked into a fierce battle with Adani Group in its core cement business. Now, the Adani Group has followed suit.
The billionaire Gautam Adani-led conglomerate, which is snapping at UltraTech’s heels in the cement sector, announced its own entry into the wires and cables business this week. Adani Enterprises said its wholly owned unit Kutch Copper has formed an equal joint venture with Praneetha Ventures, called Praneetha Ecocables, to make and sell metal products, including cables and wires.
Adani hasn’t specified any investment plans yet. UltraTech had said it would invest Rs 1,800 crore over the next two years in this segment and set up a factory near Bharuch in Gujarat.
Adani’s entry was enough to drag down shares of existing players once again. Shares of Polycab, KEI Industries, Havells India and RR Kabel dropped from 5% to 15% on Thursday, just like the hit they took when UltraTech announced its plan.
So, now two of India’s largest corporate houses will compete once again in another sector. Clearly, things are about to get more interesting. And, as always, we will keep you posted!
Another Rate Cut?
Moving on to macroeconomic news, the Reserve Bank of India this week mostly painted a rosy picture of the economy, both in terms of growth and inflation. The RBI’s economists noted in its monthly bulletin that the economy remained resilient in the face of global headwinds, supported by robust sectoral performance and improving consumption trends.
It highlighted the recent moderation in retail inflation while flagging some high-frequency data that showed food prices firming up again in March. The State of the Economy chapter of the bulletin pointed to an increase in the prices of rice, wheat, and edible oils, along with a moderation in the prices of pulses and some key vegetables.
The bulletin also noted that the corporate sector showed signs of recovery during October-December, following a subdued performance in the preceding quarter. Sales of listed private non-financial companies increased by 8.0% during the third quarter. The turnaround in growth was mainly driven by higher sales in automobiles, chemicals, food products, and electrical machinery industries, whereas sales in the petroleum, iron and steel, and cement industries continued to contract. Margins, too, improved across all major sectors during the quarter, the bulletin said.
If you are wondering where we are taking you with all these data points, it is the next month’s meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the central bank. The overall picture painted by the bulletin suggests that the MPC may opt for a softer policy stance in its April meeting, much like the breather it provided in February—fingers crossed on the external situation, though.
The MPC had cut its policy rate by 25 basis points in February, without changing its neutral stance.
Cautious Fed
The RBI, however, will also keep an eye on one important development—one over which it has little control—before making any steep rate cuts: the policy stance of the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).
Why is that?
For one, it has to watch the spread between bonds issued by the Indian government and those issued by the US government. It would want a sufficient difference between the two so that foreign investors don’t flock to safe-haven assets, which could impact everything from the rupee’s exchange rate to capital flows.
The FOMC met this week and decided to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged. This marks the second consecutive meeting in which it has held the rate steady. While there are many reasons for this, one factor that will continue to influence monetary policy over the coming meetings is the tariff war that US President Donald Trump has unleashed.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged that a “good part” of the upward revision in the inflation forecast was due to tariffs. The US Fed raised its year-end inflation forecast to 2.7%, from 2.5% in December. The US central bank targets a 2% inflation rate. Hence, Trump’s tariff threat—or what some may call a “tariff tantrum”—will keep the Fed on edge for some time, despite a downward revision in 2025 growth projections.
The median forecast for 2025 GDP growth now stands at 1.7%, down from the earlier estimate of 2.1%.
The Fed’s median projection still anticipates a total of 50 basis points in rate cuts by 2025, but Powell cautioned that any policy easing will be data-dependent.
On whether the US faces a recession due to the impact of fresh tariffs—either already imposed or threatened—on most of its trading partners, Powell acknowledged the likelihood of a mild economic downturn.
Market Wrap
India’s stock markets put up a strong show for the second week in a row, as investors hunted for bargains after a sharp decline since October. Both the BSE Sensex and the NSE Nifty clocked a gain of 4.2%, marking their biggest weekly gain in four years. Mid-cap and small-cap indices surged, too, rising 7.7% and 8.6%, respectively.
The two-week rally has shrunk the Sensex and the Nifty’s drop to 10-11% from their record highs in September.
Market breadth was decidedly positive with only two of the Nifty’s 50 stocks ending in the red during the week. Those two were ITC and Tech Mahindra. Other IT companies also managed to stay in the green, but only just.
Financial stocks were the biggest gainers, with SBI Life Insurance and HDFC Life Insurance jumping over 9% each amid growing investor interest in the insurance sector. Shriram Finance and ICICI Bank were among the top financial stocks. Axis Bank and Bajaj Finance also notched up strong gains.
Tata Motors jumped over 7% after previously falling to a one-year low. State-run companies ONGC, NTPC and Coal India rose more than 6% each. Drugmakers Dr Reddy’s Labs and Sun Pharma, Apollo Hospitals, Bajaj Auto, Larsen & Toubro, Adani Enterprises and Adani Ports were the other major winners.
Other Headlines
- US private equity firm Bain Capital to buy 18% stake in Manappuram Finance for Rs 4,385 crore
- Hyundai, Tata Motors, Maruti Suzuki, Renault to increase car prices by 2-4% from April
- Vodafone Idea says exploring tie-up with Elon Musk’s Starlink
- Trump Organisation’s India partner Tribeca launches first Trump-branded office project
- Elon Musk’s X sues Indian government over content removal in new censorship fight
- Hero MotoCorp to invest Rs 525 crore in commercial EV maker Euler Motors
- Hindustan Unilever to buy 14.3% stake in plastics recycling company Lucro Plastecycle
- Reliance Industries to acquire shipyard company from Welspun for about Rs 383 crore
- Delhi airport operator GMR sues central govt over allowing flights from defence airbase in Ghaziabad
- Directorate General of Trade Remedies recommends 12% temporary tax on some steel products to curb imports
- IndusInd International plans to list Reliance Capital’s insurance units in two-three years
- India, New Zealand aim to seal free trade agreement in 60 days
- India’s merchandise exports in February flat at $36.91 billion vs January, imports fall 14% to $50.96 billion
- India’s wholesale inflation rises slightly in February to 2.38% from 2.31% in January
- Bajaj Finance appoints Anup Kumar Saha as MD, Rajeev Jain becomes vice chairman
- Eli Lilly launches blockbuster diabetes and weight-loss drug Mounjaro in India
- IndusInd Bank appoints independent firm to probe accounting discrepancies
- Hindalco to invest Rs 45,000 crore in aluminium, copper, and specialty alumina businesses
- Bureau of Indian Standards conducts raids on Amazon, Flipkart warehouses
That’s all for this week. Until next week, happy investing.
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