In this edition, we talk about the US Federal Reserve’s rate hike and the stock market rally. We also touch upon the high-stakes 5G telecom spectrum auction, the government’s latest bid to revive BSNL, and corporate earnings.
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Temper your expectations to avoid disappointment, the wise men and women often remind us. But that still doesn’t deter risk-taking investors from jacking up their expectations every now and then.
And that’s exactly what happened this week.
Stock markets rallied this week after the US Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 75 basis points and a contraction in the world’s biggest economy for the second quarter in a row fuelled expectation of slower monetary tightening in coming months. Dollar weakened, the rupee strengthened, and the Nifty climbed back above 17,000.
To be sure, the Fed’s hike was widely expected. In fact, some analysts had even predicted a bigger, 100-basis-point increase. But a slowing US economy prompted the Fed to stay the course.
What cheered investors even further was Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s refusal to give any guidance, saying instead that any future rate action will depend on data. Some analysts now expect the Fed to shift its focus from fighting inflation to supporting growth and start cutting rates as early as next year.
The Fed move lifted benchmark US indices, including the S&P 500 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq. That, in turn, buoyed investor sentiment across Asia-Pacific including India, where both the BSE Sensex and the NSE Nifty gained more than 2% each during the week.
Robust corporate earnings helped, too, from Apple and Amazon in the US to Bajaj Finserv and Bajaj Finance in India. The Bajaj twins, in fact, led market gains this week as they climbed more than 15% each.
Will the rally gain momentum or fizzle out? Well, better listen to the wise!
Ringing aloud
Talking about expectations, it appears the Indian government might be able to meet or even exceed its expectations of revenue from the 5G auctions.
On July 26, the auction for the 5G telecom spectrum kicked off with all the biggies—Reliance Jio, Bharti Airtel and Vodafone Idea—slugging it out.
After four days and 16 rounds, the government has already received bids worth more than Rs 1.49 trillion.
While Jio and Airtel are widely expected to win the biggest share of the airwaves, another curious entrant this time is the Adani Group, which too has put its hat in the ring, albeit only for a sliver of the pie.
For now, though, the Adani Group says it is not entering the consumer mobile services segment, and will use the spectrum it wins only for captive purposes.
But, never say never, as analysts point out that a decade back, this is how Jio had sought to wet its toes in the Indian telecom market, before it went big and became the biggest mobile operator in the country.
So, all the telecom operators will be keenly watching Adani’s next move. As shall we!
Bailing BSNL out
And the government wants to put all that money to good use. This week it unveiled a Rs 1.64 trillion revival package for state-run telecom operator Bharat Sanchar Nigam Ltd (BSNL), which has been struggling for years now.
This comes almost three years after the government had announced plans to revive BSNL along with its smaller sibling Mahanagar Telephone Nigam Ltd (MTNL).
The four-year turnaround package includes both a cash and a non-cash component. This, the government hopes, will help upgrade BSNL’s network to 4G, while also destressing its balance sheet.
Bumpy ride ahead
While the bailout package will ensure that at least a few thousand BSNL employees get to keep their jobs, if news reports are to be believed, as many as a thousand employees at cab aggregator Ola may not be as lucky. This comes even as Ola is looking to ramp up hiring for its electric mobility business.
If the layoffs do come to pass, Ola may need to brace for more public anger. Already, the company has been at the receiving end for delays in deliveries of its electric scooters as well as for faulty batteries, for which it is also one of the companies that has reportedly received a government show cause notice.
Grounded
Even as Ola fights its fires, the news just keeps going from bad to worse for Ajay Singh’s SpiceJet.
After serving the carrier a show-cause notice following a slew of mid-air incidents, the aviation regulator has now asked the airline to operate only half its flights for the next eight weeks.
The Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA) said this week that it was putting the cash-strapped SpiceJet on ‘enhanced surveillance’ for eight weeks. It said that SpiceJet will be allowed to scale up its operations only after it can prove that it has “sufficient technical support and financial resources” to operate at a higher capacity.
SpiceJet, for its part, has said that the curtailment will have no impact on its operations as it is anyway operating about 300 flights a week, which is only half the approved number.
Singhs are not kings
SpiceJet, though, is not the only major Indian company facing regulatory heat.
The Securities and Exchange Board of India has imposed a Rs 60-crore penalty on Religare Corp Services Ltd, brothers Malvinder Singh and Shivinder Singh (former promoters of Fortis Healthcare) and seven others, in the case pertaining to the alleged diversion of funds and money laundering of more than Rs 2,000 crore.
The other entities and individuals fined in the case include RHC Holding Pvt. Ltd, A-1 Book Co. Ltd, Malav Holdings, Shivi Holdings, ANR Securities, Sunil Godhwani and Anil Saxena.
The Singh brothers, once the poster boys of the Indian pharmaceutical and healthcare industry, have also been barred from dealing in the capital markets for the next three years.
How the mighty have fallen!
Adani, Adani, Adani
Talking of poster boys, Gautam Adani, it seems, is invincible. The Adani Group is planning a Rs 1,500 crore initial public offering for its non-banking finance company Adani Capital by sometime in early 2024.
Adani Capital will offer about a 10% stake in IPO and target a valuation of around $2 billion, Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer Gaurav Gupta said in an interview this week.
The news of the IPO comes even as Aadani has said that his group will be going all out to capture the Indian renewable energy market and pump a whopping $70 billion into the sunrise sector.
All that glitters
This week, India also got its first global gold trading exchange at the GIFT City in Gujarat.
India’s International Bullion Exchange (IIBX), it is being said, will facilitate efficient price discovery, and will look to offer a diversified portfolio of products and technology services, in a cost-effective manner.
The proof of the pudding though is in the eating. The GIFT City has so far been only marginally successful, and we will be keenly watching if the new exchange can help change that.
Earnings snapshot
- Apple Q3 earnings top estimates, revenue hits record $83 billion
- Amazon tops expectations on revenue but reported a net loss of $2 billion
- Google parent Alphabet’s revenue growth falls to slowest pace in two years
- Microsoft misses estimates but issues rosy full-year forecast
- Walmart issues profit warning as inflation eats into margins
- Bajaj Finserv Q1 net profit jumps 57%; Bajaj Finance profit soars 159%
- Tata Steel meets estimate on April-June net profit
- L&T Q1 profit jumps on better project execution
- Bajaj Auto April-June net profit rises 10.6% on support from exports
- Tata Motors deep in the red as Jaguar Land Rover remains a drag
- Maruti Suzuki profit soars due to low base
The week ahead
- The government will release GST collection data for July and preliminary trade data.
- S&P Global will release Purchasing Managers’ Index for manufacturing activity in July.
- The Reserve Bank of India’s monetary policy committee will meet and is likely to hike the repo rate.
Until next week, happy investing!
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