In this edition, we talk about the RBI’s pause on interest rate hikes and what it means. We also talk about the global economic outlook and how India is moving in to regulate its burgeoning online gaming industry.
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“What goes up, must come down,” or so goes an old, oft-repeated adage.
No, we are not talking about Newton’s laws of motion here. We are talking about interest rates that, over the past year, have been going up, up and away. And now it seems, the upward rate cycle may finally be turning.
In a surprise move, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) this week hit the pause button on hiking interest rates. The central bank’s decision came despite the US Federal Reserve lifting its benchmark lending rates again last month.
The RBI was widely expected to go in for a 25 basis points (bps) hike, before going in for a pause, but its monetary policy committee decided otherwise.
The decision has left economists divided, with several among them seeing a prolonged pause, while others think that the central bank’s next move will depend on the economic data. The most significant factor driving the RBI’s decision will be inflation. Economists believe the RBI may not lift interest rates over the next few months if inflation does not get out of hand, even if it remains higher than its tolerance levels.
For now though, the repo rate remains unchanged at 6.5%. This means that at least for the next couple of months, till the RBI meets again, your home and car loan interest rates will remain the same.
It also means that the elevated rates on fixed deposits, too, will remain where they are. So, if you are sitting on some extra cash that you want to earn some handsome returns on, now may just be the right time to go in for that fixed deposit.
But does a pause mean that the RBI will begin bringing interest rates down anytime soon? While we are not here to second guess the next move the central bank mandarins will make, for now it seems unlikely that RBI governor Shaktikanta Das will move into reverse gear. Das said after the policy decision that the status “is a pause and not a pivot” because the monetary policy committee wanted to assess the impact of the cumulative 250 basis points hike in the policy rates since May last year.
The markets though seem to have taken this as a cue that the interest rate cycle may finally be softening, with both the benchmark indices—Sensex and Nifty—ending Thursday’s trading session firmly in the green.
Downturn ahead
While the stock markets may have regained some of their ground over the past few trading sessions, the general outlook of the global economy remains mostly gloomy.
Several top global economists and corporate czars have been voicing their concerns about the recent banking crisis in the US and Europe, saying it has increased the odds of a recession.
JPMorgan Chase & Co’s chief executive officer Jamie Dimon said last week that the recent turmoil in the financial industry had probably made a US recession more likely, though a downturn won’t necessarily happen.
“We are seeing people reduce lending a little bit, cut back a little bit and pull back a little bit,” CNN quoted him as saying.
While the Dimon did say he believed the US bank crisis that rattled global markets last month was probably nearing the end, even if more unforeseen failures occur, other top economists like former RBI governor Raghuram Rajan have been more direct in voicing their concerns.
Rajan has said that following the crisis at lenders like the Silicon Valley Bank and Credit Suisse, he expects more bank troubles. He said a decade of easy money and a flood of liquidity from central banks has caused an “addiction” and a fragility within the financial system as policymakers tighten policy. He said central bankers have been given a “free ride” as policy makers rapidly reverse the ultra-accommodative stance taken in the decade following the financial crisis.
“I hope for the best but expect that there might be more to come, partly because some of what we saw was unexpected,” Rajan said. “The entire concern is that very easy money (and) high liquidity over a long period creates perverse incentives and perverse structures that become fragile when you reverse everything.”
Even back home, bankers like Axis Bank CEO Amitabh Chaudhry have flagged risks of slowing economic growth. Chaudhry said lenders need to stay vigilant about the economic outlook despite the recent robust growth, as India’s post-pandemic rebound loses steam and global economic volatility makes forecasting more difficult
Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned that the five-year global growth outlook is the weakest since 1990. For 2023, the global gross domestic product will likely expand by less than 3%, it said. That’s in line with the fund’s January forecast of 2.9%
So, what is our view on the economy? We cannot offer a view, but will simply say this—remain cautiously optimistic. Let’s hope for the best, but fasten our seat belts and remain prepared for the worst.
Going greener
Whatever the general outlook, the government seems to be doing its bit to get the economy moving full speed ahead.
The government said this week it will issue tenders for the installation of 250 gigawatts (GW) of green energy capacity by March 2028. This, as the government looks to cut its emissions by 45% from 2005 levels.
India is looking to boost the share of non-fossil capacity to 50% in 2030, from 42.6% currently. Coal currently accounts for over half of India’s 412.2 GW power generation capacity.
India will issue tenders to install 15 GW of renewable energy capacity each in the first two quarters of this fiscal year, ending March 2024, followed by bids for 10 GW in the next two quarters.
After missing a target to install 175 GW in renewable energy capacity by 2022, India is now trying to boost non-fossil capacity – solar and wind energy, nuclear and hydro power, and bio-power – to 500 GW by 2030. Its renewable energy capacity, excluding big hydro and nuclear power, exceeds 122 GW, while non-fossil capacity currently stands at more than 175 GW.
So, energy stocks, especially renewable energy ones, will likely be the flavour of the season over the next few months and years.
Just to be clear, we are not in the business of giving out investment advice, but you get the drift, right?
Game on
Even as it looks to harness the power of the sun, the government is moving in to regulate another sunrise sector—online gaming.
The government has said that online gaming companies must act as digital intermediaries, verify games and customers in real-money games, weed out fake information, and follow the rules set by self-regulatory bodies.
This move is significant considering how the online gaming sector in India has mushroomed over the past four-five years, as Internet access has become near universal and smartphones have become affordable for a vast majority of the people in the country.
Hundreds of millions of dollars have been pumped into the online gaming sector by foreign and domestic investors as the number of e-sports players in India jumped from 150,000 in 2021 to 600,000 in 2022, a recent report by Lumikai and AWS research has said.
With this implosion, real money of the order of thousands of crores has flown into the online gaming system, necessitating the government to step in and regulate it.
So, while it must be fun to make your dream team on your favourite fantasy game platform, we would urge caution. Invest your time, and money, wisely, is all that we can say.
Market Wrap
In the week gone by, the stock markets were open for just three out of the usual five days but that did not stop a benchmark index rally or sorts.
Spurred in part by the RBI’s pause, both the 50-share Nifty and the 30-share Sensex ended the week up around 1.4%. The gains come after the markets have remained largely flat over more than a year, leaving investors weary. In fact, since the beginning of 2023, the indices remain in the red by more than 1.6%.
Among the counters that gained the most during the week were auto majors Tata Motors and Hero MotoCorp, Larsen & Toubro, Bajaj Finance and Bajaj Finerv, and the HDFC twins (HDFC and HDFC Bank). Among the others that led in the rally were Reliance Industries, Tata Consumer Products, Coal India, Bajaj Auto and HDFC Life Insurance.
The stocks that lost the most value during the week included Bharat Petroleum and Vedanta.
Other headlines
- FY23 direct tax collection rises 17%, exceeds revised estimates
- India’s manufacturing PMI rises to three-month high of 56.4 in March
- Goldman Sachs-backed Samhi Hotels refiles DRHP for IPO
- Avalon Technologies IPO subscribed 2.21 times
- Portea, Zaggle, Cyient DLM, Rashi Peripherals get SEBI approval for IPOs
- Suzlon brings back JP Chalasani as CEO after three-year gap to replace Ashwani Kumar
- NSE, BSE to move Adani Green to first stage of surveillance framework
- US-based companies lay off more than 270,000 employees in Q1
- Tata Motors surpasses Hyundai in March 2023 sales, according to FADA
- Dabur says to achieve mid-single digit revenue growth in Q4; stock falls
That’s all for this week. Until next week, happy investing!
Interested in how we think about the markets? Read more: Zen And The Art Of Investing
Watch here: New vs. old tax regime
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