{"id":167,"date":"2019-06-10T03:31:46","date_gmt":"2019-06-10T03:31:46","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blog.kuvera.in\/?p=167"},"modified":"2019-10-01T02:16:08","modified_gmt":"2019-10-01T02:16:08","slug":"is-it-to-beat-the-market-index-returns-nifty-sensex-etc-find-out-here","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/kuvera.in\/blog\/is-it-to-beat-the-market-index-returns-nifty-sensex-etc-find-out-here\/","title":{"rendered":"Is it easy to beat the market Index returns (Nifty, Sensex etc)?"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_40 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-light-blue ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<div class=\"ez-toc-title-container\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<span class=\"ez-toc-title-toggle\"><a href=\"#\" class=\"ez-toc-pull-right ez-toc-btn ez-toc-btn-xs ez-toc-btn-default ez-toc-toggle\" area-label=\"ez-toc-toggle-icon-1\"><label for=\"item-69d649dc6fe38\" aria-label=\"Table of Content\"><span style=\"display: flex;align-items: center;width: 35px;height: 30px;justify-content: center;direction:ltr;\"><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/label><input  type=\"checkbox\" id=\"item-69d649dc6fe38\"><\/a><\/span><\/div>\n<nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-4'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/kuvera.in\/blog\/is-it-to-beat-the-market-index-returns-nifty-sensex-etc-find-out-here\/#Beating_the_stock_market_Index_returns_is_incredibly_hard\" title=\"Beating the stock market Index returns is incredibly hard.\">Beating the stock market Index returns is incredibly hard.<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-4'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/kuvera.in\/blog\/is-it-to-beat-the-market-index-returns-nifty-sensex-etc-find-out-here\/#Lets_look_at_the_data\" title=\"Let\u2019s look at the data.\">Let\u2019s look at the data.<\/a><ul class='ez-toc-list-level-5'><li class='ez-toc-heading-level-5'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-3\" href=\"https:\/\/kuvera.in\/blog\/is-it-to-beat-the-market-index-returns-nifty-sensex-etc-find-out-here\/#India_Evidence\" title=\"India Evidence\">India Evidence<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-4'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-4\" href=\"https:\/\/kuvera.in\/blog\/is-it-to-beat-the-market-index-returns-nifty-sensex-etc-find-out-here\/#International_Evidence\" title=\"International Evidence:\">International Evidence:<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-4'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-5\" href=\"https:\/\/kuvera.in\/blog\/is-it-to-beat-the-market-index-returns-nifty-sensex-etc-find-out-here\/#Its_all_good_in_theory_but_what_does_it_mean_in_practice\" title=\"It\u2019s all good in theory, but what does it mean in practice:\">It\u2019s all good in theory, but what does it mean in practice:<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h4><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Beating_the_stock_market_Index_returns_is_incredibly_hard\"><\/span>Beating the stock market Index returns is incredibly hard.<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h4>\n<p><em>The experts on financial TV and financial press would make you believe it is easy to pick market-beating stocks. So would a lot of financial planners. But they always stop short of showing you the evidence or show short term returns or just handwave the whole returns comparison. Time and again research has shown that beating the stock market Index returns is incredibly hard. Further selecting which investors will be able to beat the index market returns is equally hard. Thus the age-old advice, invest in index funds and keep your investment costs low.<br \/>\n<\/em><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/kuvera.in\/portfolio\/gold?action=buy-gold\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-3713\" src=\"https:\/\/kuvera.in\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/AfterOct1_flat.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"2063\" height=\"1080\" srcset=\"https:\/\/kuvera.in\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/AfterOct1_flat.png 2063w, https:\/\/kuvera.in\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/AfterOct1_flat-300x157.png 300w, https:\/\/kuvera.in\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/AfterOct1_flat-768x402.png 768w, https:\/\/kuvera.in\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/AfterOct1_flat-1024x536.png 1024w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 2063px) 100vw, 2063px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h4><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Lets_look_at_the_data\"><\/span>Let\u2019s look at the data.<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h4>\n<h5><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"India_Evidence\"><\/span><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>India Evidence<\/strong><\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h5>\n<p>There is a lot of noise in the Indian data and in the financial blogosphere where this is hotly debated. Most of the data presented in the financial blogosphere is not conclusive and almost all of it suffers from <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Selection_bias\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">selection<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Survivorship_bias\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">survivorship<\/a> bias. AMFI collects monthly data on the stock and flow of money invested into different mutual funds category (eg. Equity, bond, lifestyle etc). Since it is flow data we are using it is free of selection and survivorship bias. We use this data to create a history of equity mutual fund returns (as an industry) and compare it to NIFTY returns. The difference is massive, of the order of 60bps a month. In the chart below we track Rs100 invested in NIFTY and the average equity mutual fund.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-169 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/blog.kuvera.in\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/04\/011.png\" alt=\"011\" width=\"1069\" height=\"685\" srcset=\"https:\/\/kuvera.in\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/04\/011.png 1069w, https:\/\/kuvera.in\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/04\/011-300x192.png 300w, https:\/\/kuvera.in\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/04\/011-768x492.png 768w, https:\/\/kuvera.in\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/04\/011-1024x656.png 1024w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1069px) 100vw, 1069px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>But our data ends in 2013. Enter <a href=\"https:\/\/us.spindices.com\/documents\/spiva\/spiva-india-year-end-2018.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">SPIVA Index Vs Active<\/a> report.<\/p>\n<p>SPIVA, which stands for S&amp;P Index Vs Active studies the outperformance of active managers vs benchmark Indices all over the world. They have been writing a report on India as well and starting this year (2019) it includes a 10-year comparison of Index Vs Active funds in the Indian Mutual Fund landscape. The results are not good for the active guys:<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-3017\" src=\"https:\/\/blog.kuvera.in\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/04\/Capture.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1280\" height=\"405\" srcset=\"https:\/\/kuvera.in\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/04\/Capture.png 1280w, https:\/\/kuvera.in\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/04\/Capture-300x95.png 300w, https:\/\/kuvera.in\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/04\/Capture-768x243.png 768w, https:\/\/kuvera.in\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/04\/Capture-1024x324.png 1024w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1280px) 100vw, 1280px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>So in one of the longest bull market (2009 &#8211; 2019), the active guys have underperformed in each category. Beware the next promise from the advisors that active funds have better downside protection, i.e in times of market downturns they fall less. Again across multiple market cycles globally, this has also been proven to be patently false.<\/p>\n<p>SPIVA goes deeper into the issue at hand and looks at survivorship and also style consistency. An interesting story emerges if you look at the 10-year data.<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li>Only 67% of Large Cap and Mid\/Small Cap funds survive for 10 years. What happened to the remaining 33%. They are usually merged with better performing funds to hide their inferior performance. What this also means is that if you run any analysis starting with funds available today you will get very biased returns as it will not capture the 33% funds available at the start of 2009 which had bad outcomes. This is the single biggest fault in most of the fund analysis that is littered on the web. They start with the survivors and look at their past returns.<\/li>\n<li>There is little style consistency. Large-cap funds had a style consistency of only 14.63%. They were taking a lot of mid-cap and small-cap risk. Still, 64% of large-cap funds failed to beat the benchmark index. Given the stricter guidelines imposed by SEBI, it will be harder for funds to take a risk outside their defined scope. This will make it even harder for them to beat benchmark returns.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-3018\" src=\"https:\/\/blog.kuvera.in\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/04\/Capture-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"949\" height=\"758\" srcset=\"https:\/\/kuvera.in\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/04\/Capture-1.png 949w, https:\/\/kuvera.in\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/04\/Capture-1-300x240.png 300w, https:\/\/kuvera.in\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/04\/Capture-1-768x613.png 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 949px) 100vw, 949px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Enough said!<\/p>\n<h4><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"International_Evidence\"><\/span><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>International Evidence:<\/strong><\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h4>\n<p>There is a lot of international evidence that active managers underperform market index returns. The higher fees charged by active managers usually is the biggest drag on their performance. An exhaustive study <a href=\"https:\/\/personal.vanguard.com\/pdf\/ISGIDX_032015_Secure.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">by Vanguard finds<\/a><\/p>\n<blockquote><p><strong>\u201c<em>To take one example, 72% of U.S. large-cap value equity funds under performed their benchmarks over the ten years ended December 31, 2014. The case for indexing has been strong over shorter horizons, too, although shorter sample periods have tended to produce slightly more erratic results. The case for indexing over longer horizons such as 15 years has also tended to be strong.<\/em>\u201d <\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Similar returns have been shown in academia for all investment horizons.<\/p>\n<p>The last two years have been good for managed mutual funds. This reflects in the increased marketing money and rhetoric by the managed portfolio managers and investment managers that push these products for higher fees than an index mutual fund.<\/p>\n<p>A prudent investor would do well to look at the long term performance evidence in India and abroad and ask \u201c<strong>is this time any different?<\/strong>\u201d<\/p>\n<h4><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Its_all_good_in_theory_but_what_does_it_mean_in_practice\"><\/span>It\u2019s all good in theory, but what does it mean in practice:<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h4>\n<ol>\n<li>Beating the market is incredibly hard. So is selecting a money manager who can beat the market. For every Warren Buffet, there are thousands of money managers who underperform the market index.<\/li>\n<li>If investing is not your day job and you don\u2019t want to take a lot of risks, you are better off investing in index mutual funds.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p>Visit <a href=\"http:\/\/www.kuvera.in\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\">www.kuvera.in<\/a> to invest in &#8220;Direct Plans&#8221; of Mutual Funds and save BIG on commissions!!!<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p>First published &#8211; Apr 23 2016<\/p>\n<p>Updated &#8211; Jun 10 2019<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Beating the stock market Index returns is incredibly hard. The experts on financial TV and financial press would make you believe it is easy to pick market-beating stocks. So would a lot of financial planners. But they always stop short of showing you the evidence or show short term returns or just handwave the whole [&#8230;]<\/p>\n<p><a class=\"btn btn-secondary understrap-read-more-link\" href=\"https:\/\/kuvera.in\/blog\/is-it-to-beat-the-market-index-returns-nifty-sensex-etc-find-out-here\/\">Read More&#8230;<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":3027,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false},"categories":[91],"tags":[36,40,39,37,38],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v20.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Is it easy to beat the market Index returns (Nifty, Sensex etc)? - Kuvera<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Beating the stock market Index returns is incredibly hard. 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