{"id":17466,"date":"2022-10-13T13:59:11","date_gmt":"2022-10-13T08:29:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/kuvera.in\/blog\/?p=17466"},"modified":"2022-10-13T14:14:47","modified_gmt":"2022-10-13T08:44:47","slug":"seven-bizarre-ways-to-predict-an-upcoming-recession","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/kuvera.in\/blog\/seven-bizarre-ways-to-predict-an-upcoming-recession\/","title":{"rendered":"Seven bizarre ways to predict an upcoming recession!"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_40 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-light-blue ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<div class=\"ez-toc-title-container\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<span class=\"ez-toc-title-toggle\"><a href=\"#\" class=\"ez-toc-pull-right ez-toc-btn ez-toc-btn-xs ez-toc-btn-default ez-toc-toggle\" area-label=\"ez-toc-toggle-icon-1\"><label for=\"item-69d0f4d305232\" aria-label=\"Table of Content\"><span style=\"display: flex;align-items: center;width: 35px;height: 30px;justify-content: center;direction:ltr;\"><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/label><input  type=\"checkbox\" id=\"item-69d0f4d305232\"><\/a><\/span><\/div>\n<nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-4'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/kuvera.in\/blog\/seven-bizarre-ways-to-predict-an-upcoming-recession\/#1_Mens_Underwear_Index\" title=\"1. Men\u2019s Underwear Index\u00a0\">1. Men\u2019s Underwear Index\u00a0<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-4'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/kuvera.in\/blog\/seven-bizarre-ways-to-predict-an-upcoming-recession\/#2_First_Date_Index\" title=\"2. First Date Index\">2. First Date Index<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-4'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-3\" href=\"https:\/\/kuvera.in\/blog\/seven-bizarre-ways-to-predict-an-upcoming-recession\/#3_Garbage_Indicator\" title=\"3. Garbage Indicator\">3. Garbage Indicator<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-4'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-4\" href=\"https:\/\/kuvera.in\/blog\/seven-bizarre-ways-to-predict-an-upcoming-recession\/#4_The_R-word_Index\" title=\"4. The R-word Index\">4. The R-word Index<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-4'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-5\" href=\"https:\/\/kuvera.in\/blog\/seven-bizarre-ways-to-predict-an-upcoming-recession\/#5_Unclaimed_Corpse_Indicator\" title=\"5. Unclaimed Corpse Indicator\">5. Unclaimed Corpse Indicator<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-4'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-6\" href=\"https:\/\/kuvera.in\/blog\/seven-bizarre-ways-to-predict-an-upcoming-recession\/#6_Divorce_Rates\" title=\"6. Divorce Rates\">6. Divorce Rates<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-4'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-7\" href=\"https:\/\/kuvera.in\/blog\/seven-bizarre-ways-to-predict-an-upcoming-recession\/#7_Hemline_Index\" title=\"7. Hemline Index\">7. Hemline Index<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Recession is a powerful word. While the world is still not yet agreed on whether or not there is a global recession coming, we have some really interesting trends and patterns that have been observed by experts repeatedly during periods of recession in the past. These trends have now become a bizarre way to predict a recession. Wondering why we used the word bizarre? Let\u2019s find out,\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h4><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"1_Mens_Underwear_Index\"><\/span><strong><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">1. Men\u2019s Underwear Index\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h4>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Multiple studies over the years have noticed a pattern of decline in sales of men\u2019s underwear during a recession.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-17468\" src=\"https:\/\/kuvera.in\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/20221013_131542-300x200.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"400\" height=\"267\" srcset=\"https:\/\/kuvera.in\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/20221013_131542-300x200.png 300w, https:\/\/kuvera.in\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/20221013_131542-150x100.png 150w, https:\/\/kuvera.in\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/20221013_131542.png 750w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 400px) 100vw, 400px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">It is generally accepted that men would try to extend the wear of their existing underwear if they are worried about recession and financial crunch. It is also seen that as the economy gets better it is one of the first discretionary purchases made by men.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">In 2022, if we go by this index, there is a slight downward trend in the purchase of men\u2019s underwear in the US but it is not so severe as to warrant a recession-like situation.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h4><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"2_First_Date_Index\"><\/span><strong><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">2. First Date Index<\/span><\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h4>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Another pattern that has been noticed by the online dating platform Match.com is the trend of more desire to start dating during economic slumps. Whenever there is a significant downward turn in economic growth, more people are active on dating apps and sites and looking for partners.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h4><strong><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-17471\" src=\"https:\/\/kuvera.in\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/giphy-7-2-300x169.gif\" alt=\"\" width=\"400\" height=\"225\" srcset=\"https:\/\/kuvera.in\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/giphy-7-2-300x169.gif 300w, https:\/\/kuvera.in\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/giphy-7-2-150x84.gif 150w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 400px) 100vw, 400px\" \/><\/span><\/strong><\/h4>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">This trend was first noticed in 2008 when Match.com noticed its busiest quarter in 7 years during the economic slump. Since then, the trend has occurred multiple times during periods of economic slowdown.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">The belief here is that when times get tough, people don\u2019t want to be lonely and look for partners to share their woes. Online dating is also much cheaper than offline dating and hence is preferred when the money&#8217;s tight.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h4><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"3_Garbage_Indicator\"><\/span><strong><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">3. Garbage Indicator<\/span><\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h4>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">This index has proved 82% accurate over 11 years from 2001 to 2012 for the US economy. Here it was seen that when the economy is slow then the garbage produced by people is also significantly less.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/kuvera.in\/fixed-deposit\/all\"><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-14483\" src=\"https:\/\/kuvera.in\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/fd-blog-01-1-1024x334.jpg\" alt=\"kuvera-fixed-deposit-online\" width=\"640\" height=\"209\" srcset=\"https:\/\/kuvera.in\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/fd-blog-01-1-1024x334.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/kuvera.in\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/fd-blog-01-1-300x98.jpg 300w, https:\/\/kuvera.in\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/fd-blog-01-1-768x250.jpg 768w, https:\/\/kuvera.in\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/fd-blog-01-1-150x49.jpg 150w, https:\/\/kuvera.in\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/fd-blog-01-1.jpg 1080w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">This is based on the principle that during periods of recessions, people tend to use fewer goods and hence, produce less garbage.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h4><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"4_The_R-word_Index\"><\/span><strong><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">4. The R-word Index<\/span><\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h4>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">You can also predict a recession based on the search trend for recession. The more and more the word appears in news, the more likely it becomes for it to happen.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-17470\" src=\"https:\/\/kuvera.in\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/20221013_131755-300x171.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"400\" height=\"228\" srcset=\"https:\/\/kuvera.in\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/20221013_131755-300x171.jpg 300w, https:\/\/kuvera.in\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/20221013_131755-1024x583.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/kuvera.in\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/20221013_131755-768x437.jpg 768w, https:\/\/kuvera.in\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/20221013_131755-150x85.jpg 150w, https:\/\/kuvera.in\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/20221013_131755.jpg 1200w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 400px) 100vw, 400px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">The idea here is that as the economy slows down, more and more people will look up whether there is a probability of recession to plan their expenses accordingly.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">This index was created by &#8216;The Economists&#8217; and it counts the number of times the word was used in \u2018The Washington Post and \u2018The New York Times\u2019 per quarter. It has been a hit-and-miss so far.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<h4><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"5_Unclaimed_Corpse_Indicator\"><\/span><strong><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">5. Unclaimed Corpse Indicator<\/span><\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h4>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Since funeral costs are a big expenditure in most parts of the world, it has been noticed that when a recession hits, people tend to not claim dead bodies in order to avoid funeral expenses.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-17469\" src=\"https:\/\/kuvera.in\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/20221013_131800-300x183.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"400\" height=\"244\" srcset=\"https:\/\/kuvera.in\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/20221013_131800-300x183.jpg 300w, https:\/\/kuvera.in\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/20221013_131800-768x469.jpg 768w, https:\/\/kuvera.in\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/20221013_131800-150x92.jpg 150w, https:\/\/kuvera.in\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/20221013_131800.jpg 850w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 400px) 100vw, 400px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">When the bodies are unclaimed, the state pays for the funeral costs. While this has proved correct on occasion, it has also been incorrect on many occasions. The trend is largely seen in some states of the US and due to the cultural significance of the dead bodies is not true in many countries.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h4><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"6_Divorce_Rates\"><\/span><strong><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">6. Divorce Rates<\/span><\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h4>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">There are two theories when it comes to divorce rates and recession. One of them is that as time gets tough due to the financial crunch, more and more people split up.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-17467\" src=\"https:\/\/kuvera.in\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/20221013_131805-300x129.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"400\" height=\"172\" srcset=\"https:\/\/kuvera.in\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/20221013_131805-300x129.jpg 300w, https:\/\/kuvera.in\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/20221013_131805-150x65.jpg 150w, https:\/\/kuvera.in\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/20221013_131805.jpg 500w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 400px) 100vw, 400px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">The other states that since divorces become more expensive during a recession, people postpone it till the economy is better. The patterns however back the second theory. Both the UK and US have noticed a significant drop in the divorce rate during the recession.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h4><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"7_Hemline_Index\"><\/span><strong><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">7. Hemline Index<\/span><\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h4>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">This index was first proposed in 1926 and states that as there is a boom in the economy the hemline of women\u2019s skirts gets higher going up to a miniskirt and as the economy slows down, the hemline goes lower to a maxi skirt.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">This is a disputed index and many have contradicted this theory.\u00a0<\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/web.archive.org\/web\/20120306100914\/http:\/\/publishing.eur.nl\/ir\/repub\/asset\/20147\/EI%202010-40.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Here<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">\u00a0is a detailed study of this index with data.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">It is important to know that these are not in any way or form accurate ways of predicting a recession but can be used as a study of some interesting consumer behaviors that happen whenever there is a fear of recession in the economy.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">The key thing here is that all of these unorthodox indexes have largely been noticed in the US and a few European countries. Due to the large cultural differences, such indexes rarely hold in countries like India. But anything that financially affects the US<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">, will also affect the global economy eventually.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Read more:\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/kuvera.in\/blog\/category\/zen-and-the-art-of-investing\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><strong>Zen And The Art Of Investing<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Watch\/hear on YouTube: Where to invest for one year<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<div class=\"embed-container\"><iframe src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/f7yfzUhQDiM\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\" data-mce-fragment=\"1\"><\/iframe><\/div>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Start investing through a platform that brings goal planning and investing to your fingertips. Visit\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/app.kuvera.in\/\">Kuvera.in<\/a>\u00a0to discover\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/kuvera.in\/blog\/direct-plans-better\/\">Direct Plans<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/app.kuvera.in\/explore\/fixed-deposit\/c\/all\">Fixed Deposits<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/kuvera.in\/user\/login\">start investing today.<\/a><\/p>\n<p>#MutualFundSahiHai #KuveraSabseSahiHai!<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Recession is a powerful word. While the world is still not yet agreed on whether or not there is a global recession coming, we have some really interesting trends and patterns that have been observed by experts repeatedly during periods of recession in the past. These trends have now become a bizarre way to predict [&#8230;]<\/p>\n<p><a class=\"btn btn-secondary understrap-read-more-link\" href=\"https:\/\/kuvera.in\/blog\/seven-bizarre-ways-to-predict-an-upcoming-recession\/\">Read More&#8230;<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":11,"featured_media":17476,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false},"categories":[594],"tags":[1754,1755,1267,1336,1335],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v20.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Seven bizarre ways to predict an upcoming recession!<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Wondering if there is a recession coming? 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