{"id":42626,"date":"2026-08-28T17:24:33","date_gmt":"2026-08-28T11:54:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/kuvera.in\/blog\/?p=42626"},"modified":"2026-08-28T17:24:35","modified_gmt":"2026-08-28T11:54:35","slug":"a-bitter-taste","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/kuvera.in\/blog\/a-bitter-taste\/","title":{"rendered":"A Bitter Taste"},"content":{"rendered":"

Long before sugar sat in jars in kitchens around the world, it was a difficult product to make and a costly one to buy.<\/span><\/p>\n

Sugarcane was domesticated in New Guinea thousands of years ago and spread through Asia. India became an early centre of sugar-making, where techniques for extracting and crystallising sugar from cane were developed. From India, knowledge of crystallised sugar travelled westward through the Islamic world and eventually into Europe.<\/span><\/p>\n

Over time, sugar has become something more than an everyday ingredient in India. It is part of how people celebrate. <\/span>Laddoos<\/span><\/i> and <\/span>barfis<\/span><\/i> at Diwali, <\/span>kheer<\/span><\/i> at Eid, Christmas cakes, <\/span>mithai<\/span><\/i> exchanged at weddings, births and other milestones\u2014the traditions may differ, the sweetness is remarkably universal.<\/span><\/p>\n

India is the world\u2019s largest sugar consumer, with annual domestic consumption of around 28-29 million tonnes, according to the government. That is what makes the recent rise in sugar prices worth watching.<\/span><\/p>\n

The average retail price rose from \u20b948.18 a kg on July 20 to \u20b955.70 on August 20, according to the Consumer Affairs Ministry. By August 26, it crossed \u20b965 a kg in Delhi and \u20b970 in Mumbai. That\u2019s a 35-40% jump in just about a month.<\/span><\/p>\n

August marks the beginning of the period when demand typically rises as festivals arrive, followed by the wedding season. Food and beverage companies also begin building inventories.<\/span><\/p>\n

This year, however, India is entering that period with a smaller production cushion than earlier estimates suggested.<\/span><\/p>\n

The government\u2019s latest estimate puts sugar production for the 2025-26 season at around 30.6 million tonnes, down 10.8% from an initial estimate of 34.3 million tonnes. The government attributes the reduction to red rot and top borer disease in sugarcane, as well as waterlogging caused by excessive rainfall in some regions.<\/span><\/p>\n

While the government says stocks are adequate to meet demand until the new crushing season begins in October, it has allowed 1 million tonnes of duty-free raw sugar imports. It has also imposed a 400-tonne stock limit on dealers, restricted bulk consumers to 15 days of consumption from September and ordered physical verification of stocks. It has also asked mills to begin crushing from October 15.<\/span><\/p>\n

The measures raise a simple question: if stocks are adequate, why import more sugar?<\/span><\/p>\n

One way to reconcile the two is to distinguish between having enough for immediate demand and maintaining a comfortable buffer. With production estimates lower than expected and seasonal demand approaching, the government has chosen to add to available supplies before the new crop arrives.<\/span><\/p>\n

There is still disagreement over what drove the price rise.<\/span><\/p>\n

The government says lower production, festive demand, weather damage, tighter global supplies and speculation and hoarding have all played a role. It has specifically rejected the argument that ethanol diversion caused the increase, pointing out that the share of sugar diverted to ethanol fell from about 12% in 2022-23 to around 9% in 2025-26.<\/span><\/p>\n

But ethanol is becoming part of another food-price conversation.<\/span><\/p>\n

Egg prices have risen by around 35-40% over the past year, according to the National Egg Coordination Committee, with farm-level prices around \u20b97 an egg and retail prices around \u20b98.50-9. Poultry executives say prices could remain firm or rise further during winter, when egg consumption typically increases.<\/span><\/p>\n

The connection runs through maize, which is a major component of poultry feed. Roughly 37% of India\u2019s maize production was going to ethanol distilleries, and linked the diversion to higher poultry feed costs.<\/span><\/p>\n

The 37% figure is an industry estimate, not an official production statistic. The agriculture ministry\u2019s latest estimate puts India\u2019s maize production at 55.1 million tonnes in 2025-26, up from 43.4 million tonnes the previous year.<\/span><\/p>\n

Maize prices have also risen sharply, reaching nearly \u20b926,500 a tonne from around \u20b914,000 three years earlier.<\/span><\/p>\n

The broader point is that the ethanol programme is creating another source of demand for a crop used extensively in poultry feed. But ethanol is not the only factor affecting poultry costs: industry representatives have also pointed to heat stress, mortality, weather disruptions and the cost of other feed ingredients.<\/span><\/p>\n

Coming back to sugar. The global sugar market is firmer, too. The government estimates a global sugar deficit of around 3.3 million tonnes for 2026-27. International sugar prices rose from $474 a tonne on June 30 to $552 on August 20.<\/span><\/p>\n

There are already signs that sugar-market conditions have changed after the government\u2019s intervention. Ex-mill prices fell to around \u20b955 a kg by August 25, an 18% decline from their recent peak. Retail prices, however, remained higher.<\/span><\/p>\n

So, this is not simply a sugar-shortage story, nor is the egg story simply an ethanol story. Both show how agricultural commodities can face competing demands from food, feed and fuel.<\/span><\/p>\n

The next test for sugar comes with the new crushing season in October. For eggs, winter demand will provide another test. What remains unclear is how persistent these pressures will be. For now, the more useful question is not whether India has enough of these commodities, but how much cushion remains when several competing demands arrive at the same time.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"SIP_Kuvera\"<\/b><\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/h3>\n

The Price of Talent<\/b><\/h3>\n

 <\/p>\n

Sugar and eggs aren\u2019t the only things getting costlier. The H-1B visa that tech companies use to send staff to the US is also turning pricier.<\/span><\/p>\n

For decades, the H-1B visa has been one of the main ways companies bring specialised foreign workers into the US. The US government is now proposing to put a very different price on that route: $103,265 for each new H-1B petition subject to the annual cap.<\/span><\/p>\n

The proposal from the Department of Homeland Security would add the fee to the other charges employers already pay. It would cover both the regular 65,000 H-1B cap and the separate 20,000 allocation for qualifying US advanced-degree holders. The fee is not payable yet. The proposal would have to be finalised before it takes effect.<\/span><\/p>\n

The number is striking because the mandatory government fees associated with a typical H-1B petition have historically been in a range of roughly $2,000 to $5,000, depending on the petition.<\/span><\/p>\n

The administration had already tried a six-figure charge. In September 2025, President Donald Trump imposed a $100,000 payment on certain new H-1B petitions. A federal judge in Massachusetts later vacated the agency guidance implementing that payment, ruling against the government’s position. The government appealed, and the appeal remains pending.<\/span><\/p>\n

The new proposal uses a different legal mechanism. The DHS is relying on its statutory authority to set immigration fees and says the $103,265 charge is intended to recover lawful immigration-related costs. Its calculation is based on estimated costs of about $8.8 billion divided across a projected 85,000 fee-paying petitions.<\/span><\/p>\n

The H-1B programme allows US employers to hire foreign workers in specialty occupations. Its annual numerical allocation is 85,000, comprising 65,000 regular slots and 20,000 for qualifying advanced-degree holders.<\/span><\/p>\n

There is also a practical distinction between the headline number and who actually pays it. The proposed fee targets new, cap-subject petitions. It does not apply to H-1B petitions outside the cap, such as those filed by qualifying universities and research organisations, or to petitions for workers who are already counted against the cap.<\/span><\/p>\n

That distinction matters because a six-figure upfront charge changes the economics of hiring through the H-1B system. It will not matter equally to every employer or every role.<\/span><\/p>\n

For India, the change is particularly relevant. Indian professionals have accounted for the overwhelming majority of H-1B recipients in recent years, and IT services companies such as TCS, Infosys and HCLTech are among the programme’s major sponsors.<\/span><\/p>\n

How companies respond is less certain. They could absorb the additional cost, alter where work is performed, or change how they use immigration-sponsored employees. The proposal does not tell us which response will dominate.<\/span><\/p>\n

The earlier $100,000 charge was already being paid by some employers. As of late February, about 70 employers had paid it on 85 applications.<\/span><\/p>\n

The H-1B system has long been a way to move talent to where it is needed. A six-figure price for using it could make the location of that talent a more important business decision.<\/span><\/p>\n


\n<\/strong>The Cost of Attention<\/b><\/h3>\n

 <\/p>\n

Staying with tech news, midnights are about to become a little quieter for teenagers using Instagram and Facebook.<\/span><\/p>\n

Under a settlement approved by a federal judge in California, Meta Platforms Inc will by default block teenagers from accessing its platforms between midnight and 6 am. It will also impose a two-hour daily limit across the services covered by the agreement, unless a parent allows a less restrictive setting. Push notifications will be disabled during school hours, while teenagers will be able to choose a non-personalised feed. Likes and reactions will also be hidden by default.<\/span><\/p>\n

The settlement could cost Meta up to about $18 billion over 10 years.<\/span><\/p>\n

The main agreement covers 47 states, the District of Columbia and three US territories; Texas reached a separate settlement worth more than $1 billion. About $12.7 billion of Meta\u2019s payment is guaranteed, while roughly $5.3 billion is contingent on TikTok and YouTube adopting comparable protections and making matching payments.<\/span><\/p>\n

The money is enormous but the product changes may be the more consequential part of the deal.<\/span><\/p>\n

They put limits on some of the basic mechanics through which teenagers experience the platforms. The daily limit applies cumulatively across the services covered by the agreement. After 60 and 90 minutes of use, teenagers will receive additional pauses or notices, while a 15-minute session of continuous use will trigger a warning. Parents must approve a move to a less restrictive setting.<\/span><\/p>\n

The settlement also requires Meta to strengthen age-assurance systems, improve its ability to identify users under 13, and appoint an independent auditor to oversee compliance.<\/span><\/p>\n

These are not changes to a safety notice buried in the settings. They change how the products work.<\/span><\/p>\n

The agreement came after the federal trial in California had already begun. The states had alleged that Meta designed Facebook and Instagram to keep young users engaged, misled the public about the risks and violated child-privacy laws. The case included consumer-protection claims from California, Colorado, Kentucky and New Jersey, as well as federal privacy claims brought by 29 states.<\/span><\/p>\n

Meta denied wrongdoing and said it had worked extensively to protect children.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The settlement itself makes clear that it is not an admission of liability or wrongdoing. It also does not end all litigation involving Meta. Claims by private individuals and other government entities are expressly excluded from the settlement, while states that did not participate retain their own rights.<\/span><\/p>\n

What makes the deal particularly interesting is that part of Meta’s potential payment depends on what its competitors do.<\/span><\/p>\n

That takes the settlement beyond a single company’s legal exposure. Meta has agreed to put concrete limits on some of the mechanisms through which it captures young people’s attention, while a substantial part of the potential financial cost depends on whether competing platforms adopt similar protections.<\/span><\/p>\n

For an industry built around keeping people engaged, that may be the more important part of the deal.<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

The IPO Queue<\/h3>\n

 <\/p>\n

Moving back home, India\u2019s IPO market spent much of 2026 waiting. The first six months produced 27 IPOs that raised \u20b922,573 crore. Then July arrived, bringing 12 issues that raised \u20b928,648 crore. August has gone further: 21 IPOs raising \u20b920,944 crore.<\/span><\/p>\n

Together, July and August accounted for \u20b949,592 crore, or nearly 69% of the \u20b972,165 crore raised through 60 IPOs in the first eight months of 2026, according to Prime Database.<\/span><\/p>\n

Several analysts have attributed part of the current activity to the positive response to recent issues. They also pointed to a backlog of companies with SEBI approval whose approval periods are nearing expiry.<\/span><\/p>\n

That helps explain why so many companies have appeared in the market at once. There is a substantial queue behind them.<\/span><\/p>\n

Prime Database puts the pipeline of companies awaiting SEBI approval at 75, with an estimated total issue size of \u20b92.02 lakh crore. Of this, \u20b91.38 lakh crore comes from 32 companies that have disclosed their proposed issue sizes. For another 43 companies, Prime estimates \u20b964,500 crore, using \u20b91,500 crore per issue.<\/span><\/p>\n

Some of the proposed offerings are large. Jio Platforms is estimated at \u20b940,000 crore and NSE at \u20b930,000 crore. Razorpay is at \u20b94,700 crore, while Kuku FM and Cult.fit are estimated at \u20b93,500 crore each.<\/span><\/p>\n

But a pipeline is not the same thing as money waiting to be raised. Companies can delay their offerings, change their plans or wait for more favourable market conditions. That caution was visible earlier this year.<\/span><\/p>\n

From January through June, every month had fewer than 10 IPOs. January saw three issues raising \u20b94,765 crore. April had just two, raising \u20b91,076 crore. May had none.<\/span><\/p>\n

Companies had spent much of the first half in a \u201cwait-and-watch mode\u201d to see whether conditions improved.<\/span><\/p>\n

The recent change appears to have been helped by a combination of investor response, domestic liquidity and a pipeline that is now moving.<\/span><\/p>\n

Markets often move in phases. The primary market is no different.<\/span><\/p>\n

For now, the facts point to a market that has reopened after a quiet first half, rather than one whose next phase is already clear. What happens to the large queue of companies waiting behind July and August will tell us more.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"FD_Kuvera\"<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Market wrap<\/b><\/h3>\n

 <\/p>\n

Hawkish minutes from the Reserve Bank of India and uncertainty over what US Fed Chair Kevin Warsh may say at the Jackson Hole summit, led key Indian equity indices to post losses for a third straight week.<\/span><\/p>\n

During the week, the Nifty 50 shed 0.3%, while the Sensex fell 0.4%.<\/span><\/p>\n

Volatility during the newly-introduced closing auction mechanism also weighed on the indices. This was the first week in which CAS coincided with the monthly expiry of futures and options. Both expiry days, Tuesday and Thursday, saw sharp swings during CAS.<\/span><\/p>\n

Adani Enterprises, Kotak Mahindra Bank, JSW Steel and Tech Mahindra were the top gainers during the week, rising 3%-5%. Shriram Finance and Bharti Airtel were the biggest losers, shedding more than 3%.<\/span><\/p>\n

The Nifty IT index was the clear winner during the week, rising about 3.5%, while energy and telecom sectors came under pressure.<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Other Headlines
\n<\/strong><\/h3>\n

 <\/p>\n