{"id":5227,"date":"2020-08-30T04:16:18","date_gmt":"2020-08-30T04:16:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/kuvera.in\/blog\/?p=5227"},"modified":"2021-12-15T11:29:15","modified_gmt":"2021-12-15T11:29:15","slug":"are-stocks-in-a-bubble","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/kuvera.in\/blog\/are-stocks-in-a-bubble\/","title":{"rendered":"Are stocks in a bubble?"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_40 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-light-blue ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<div class=\"ez-toc-title-container\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<span class=\"ez-toc-title-toggle\"><a href=\"#\" class=\"ez-toc-pull-right ez-toc-btn ez-toc-btn-xs ez-toc-btn-default ez-toc-toggle\" area-label=\"ez-toc-toggle-icon-1\"><label for=\"item-69e7af659d069\" aria-label=\"Table of Content\"><span style=\"display: flex;align-items: center;width: 35px;height: 30px;justify-content: center;direction:ltr;\"><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/label><input  type=\"checkbox\" id=\"item-69e7af659d069\"><\/a><\/span><\/div>\n<nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><ul class='ez-toc-list-level-5'><li class='ez-toc-heading-level-5'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/kuvera.in\/blog\/are-stocks-in-a-bubble\/#Check_what_happened_in_different_markets_this_week_here\" title=\"Check what happened in different markets this week\u00a0here.\u00a0\">Check what happened in different markets this week\u00a0here.\u00a0<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-4'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/kuvera.in\/blog\/are-stocks-in-a-bubble\/#Announcement\" title=\"Announcement\">Announcement<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-4'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-3\" href=\"https:\/\/kuvera.in\/blog\/are-stocks-in-a-bubble\/#Quote_of_the_week\" title=\"Quote of the week:\">Quote of the week:<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-4'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-4\" href=\"https:\/\/kuvera.in\/blog\/are-stocks-in-a-bubble\/#Interested_in_how_we_think_about_the_markets\" title=\"Interested in how we think about the markets?\">Interested in how we think about the markets?<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<p><strong>One of the basic principles of economics is &#8211; \u201cNever reason from a price change.\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>But we do it nonetheless. A stock which is down 60% is considered cheap &#8211; selling at a discount. A high Mutual Fund NAV is considered expensive &#8211; selling at a premium so to say. Neither needs to be true, and neither is a good strategy to buy or sell. Indeed penny stocks can bankrupt you quickly and direct plans of Mutual Funds have higher NAV because of accumulated gains due to higher returns than regular plans and are good for you.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>The most extreme example of inferring from a price change is when we claim that an asset is in a bubble. It simply means that an asset has appreciated in value very quickly &#8211; maybe 5x or 10x of what it used to be. An asset repricing so extreme that in hindsight it seems almost impossible to imagine someone was still buying. But during the frenzy, there are many more waiting to buy in fear of missing out on spectacular gains. And lest you think the smart avoid this frenzy easily, it will help to revisit Newton&#8217;s example and his investment in the South Sea company. That investment bankrupted Newton. A chart of Newton\u2019s investing borrowed from Marc Faber via Telegraph looks like this:<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-5231\" src=\"https:\/\/kuvera.in\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/Newton-Investing.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"599\" height=\"309\" srcset=\"https:\/\/kuvera.in\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/Newton-Investing.jpg 599w, https:\/\/kuvera.in\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/Newton-Investing-300x155.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 599px) 100vw, 599px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>After the episode Newton famously proclaimed<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>I can calculate the movement of the stars, but not the madness of men.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>In recent times, the word &#8220;bubble&#8221; has been used for bitcoin&#8217;s rally and crash in 2018, or for Tesla\u2019s price rally post-Mar 2020. Or more recently a penny stock going up 4300% and the company doesn&#8217;t even have any revenues.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>And they might well be bubbles. But the word is grossly overused and bubbles are only known in hindsight.\u00a0As Prof Fama of the University of Chicago points out that spotting and predicting bubbles are a fool&#8217;s errand. Research supports Prof Fama as well. In their 2017 paper cheekily titled \u201cBubble for Fama\u201d, Greenwood, Shleifer and You note<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>We evaluate Eugene Fama\u2019s claim that stock prices do not exhibit price bubbles. Based on US industry returns 1926-2014 and international sector returns 1985-2014&#8230; Fama is correct in that a sharp price increase of an industry portfolio does not, on average, predict unusually low returns going forward.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>They do note however that a sharp price increase does predict a substantially heightened probability of a crash, but timing it is not easy. Take the most famous case &#8211; Alan Greenspan called the dot-com bubble as early as 1996 when he famously coined the term &#8220;irrational exuberance&#8221;. Any investor who would have heeded that advice and sold all their stocks would have missed out on 4 years of spectacular rally till mid-2000 that saw the S&amp;P 500 almost doubling since 1996.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>In fact, it would be fair to say that experts have called\u00a0<em>10 of the last 2<\/em>\u00a0bubbles\u00a0<em>(sic)<\/em>\u00a0correctly!\u00a0Pretty much the same record they have in calling recessions or bear markets. In one such experiment in the faculty lounge at Stanford, professors were shown charts of agriculture prices and asked to identify if any were bubbles. The charts were randomly generated but still, they saw patterns in them.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>The truth is somewhere in the middle. Prices do move too much &#8211; one way or the other. In hindsight, they may seem wrong as well.\u00a0 But that does not mean those movements have any predictive value on future price moves. Bitcoin, for example, fell from ~USD 20k down to ~ USD 3k only to bounce back to over USD 11k today. Drawing an inference from price would have led the investor astray multiple times.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>So where does this leave us? Next time someone says, \u201ctech stocks are in a bubble\u201d, \u201cgold is in a bubble\u201d, \u201cbitcoin is a bubble\u201d etc then remind them of this. Realise that all they are saying is that the price has run up too much too soon. \u00a0And what we have learnt today is that we should never reason from a price change. Price changes don\u2019t tell you anything on what will happen in the future.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In this week&#8217;s episode of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=s23EckjSq5w&amp;list=PLDSzQdT9nLmCRFMfrhG61kBY1XcV5wxGb&amp;index=1\">Kuvera QuickTakes<\/a>,\u00a0 Ajay Tyagi (CFA), Fund Manager &amp; Executive Vice President &#8211; UTI AMC and Neelabh Sanyal, COO &amp; Co-Founder \u2013 Kuvera.in discuss the pros and cons of various routes of investing &#8211; Mutual funds v\/s direct stocks.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"Kuvera QuickTakes: Stock Selection within Mutual Funds\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/s23EckjSq5w?list=PLDSzQdT9nLmCRFMfrhG61kBY1XcV5wxGb\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h5><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Check_what_happened_in_different_markets_this_week_here\"><\/span><strong>Check what happened in different markets this week<a href=\"https:\/\/kuvera.in\/blog\/category\/check-what-happened-in-different-markets-in-one-place\/\">\u00a0here.\u00a0<\/a><\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h5>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h4><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Announcement\"><\/span><b>Announcement<\/b><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h4>\n<p><b>1\/ <span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> YES Bank has signed an agreement with <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">GPL Finance and Investments (GPLFI) <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">to sell 100% stake of it\u2019s Mutual Fund business<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">.<\/span><\/b><\/p>\n<p><b>2\/<\/b> <a href=\"https:\/\/kuvera.in\/explore\/amc\/hsbc\"><b>HSBC Mutual Fund<\/b><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> has announced that Ritesh Jain will be the new fund manager of <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/kuvera.in\/explore\/mf\/l\/hsbc-flexi-debt-growth--HFDIG-GR\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">HSBC flexi debt fund<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> &amp; <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/kuvera.in\/explore\/mf\/l\/hsbc-short-duration-growth--HISG-GR\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">HSBC short duration fund<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>3\/ <\/b><a href=\"https:\/\/kuvera.in\/explore\/amc\/jm\"><b>JM Financial Mutual Fund<\/b><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> has approved the merger of <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/kuvera.in\/explore\/mf\/l\/jm-ultra-short-duration-growth--MMR4-GR\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">JM Ultra Short Duration<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/kuvera.in\/explore\/mf\/l\/jm-money-market-growth--MMS4-GR\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">JM Money Market Fund<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> and <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/kuvera.in\/explore\/mf\/l\/jm-short-term-growth--JMSTDG-GR\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">JM Short Term Fund<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> into <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/kuvera.in\/explore\/mf\/l\/jm-low-duration-growth--MMP4-GR\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">JM Low Duration Fund<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, with effect from 25 September 2020.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h4><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Quote_of_the_week\"><\/span><strong>Quote of the week:<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h4>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<div class=\"css-1dbjc4n r-156q2ks\">\n<div class=\"css-901oao r-hkyrab r-1qd0xha r-1blvdjr r-16dba41 r-ad9z0x r-bcqeeo r-bnwqim r-qvutc0\" dir=\"auto\" lang=\"en\">\n<p>Money is a public good; as such, it lends itself to private exploitation.<\/p>\n<div class=\"author\">: Charles P. Kindleberger<\/div>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h4><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Interested_in_how_we_think_about_the_markets\"><\/span>Interested in how we think about the markets?<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h4>\n<p>Read more:\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/kuvera.in\/blog\/category\/zen-and-the-art-of-investing\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><strong>Zen And The Art Of Investing<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Watch\/hear on YouTube:<\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"Kuvera Insights: Vivek Kaul explains the impact of Non Performing Assets (NPA&#039;s) and Bad Loans\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/cWcgNrjwVIU?list=PLDSzQdT9nLmCysU31bg4Ngh7WY2p3UiiI\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p>Start investing through a platform that brings goal planning and investing to your fingertips. Visit\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.kuvera.in\/\"><strong>kuvera.in<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0to discover\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/kuvera.in\/blog\/direct-plans-better\/\"><strong>Direct Plans<\/strong><\/a> and\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/kuvera.in\/user\/login\"><strong>start investing today.<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<p>#MutualFundSahiHai, #KuveraSabseSahiHai!<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>One of the basic principles of economics is &#8211; \u201cNever reason from a price change.\u201d &nbsp; But we do it nonetheless. A stock which is down 60% is considered cheap &#8211; selling at a discount. A high Mutual Fund NAV is considered expensive &#8211; selling at a premium so to say. Neither needs to be [&#8230;]<\/p>\n<p><a class=\"btn btn-secondary understrap-read-more-link\" href=\"https:\/\/kuvera.in\/blog\/are-stocks-in-a-bubble\/\">Read More&#8230;<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":5252,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false},"categories":[173],"tags":[365,398,399,67,401,400,402],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v20.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Are stocks in a bubble? - Kuvera<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"What does it mean when someone says &quot;stocks are in a bubble&quot; and what does it imply for future market returns. 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A graduate of IITD and Chicago Booth, he managed a long-short equity strategy for Morgan Stanley before starting Kuvera.","url":"https:\/\/kuvera.in\/blog\/author\/rustyhk123\/"}]}},"amp_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/kuvera.in\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5227"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/kuvera.in\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/kuvera.in\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kuvera.in\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kuvera.in\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5227"}],"version-history":[{"count":20,"href":"https:\/\/kuvera.in\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5227\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":9384,"href":"https:\/\/kuvera.in\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5227\/revisions\/9384"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kuvera.in\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/5252"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/kuvera.in\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5227"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kuvera.in\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5227"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kuvera.in\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5227"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}