{"id":9573,"date":"2021-12-18T06:04:16","date_gmt":"2021-12-18T06:04:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/kuvera.in\/blog\/?p=9573"},"modified":"2021-12-18T06:04:16","modified_gmt":"2021-12-18T06:04:16","slug":"get-a-glass-of-wine","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/kuvera.in\/blog\/get-a-glass-of-wine\/","title":{"rendered":"Get a glass of wine ?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n
\n
\n

 <\/p>\n

With wine, with poetry,
\nor with virtue,\u00a0as you chose.
\nBut get drunk.<\/p>\n

: Charles Baudelaire, Paris Spleen<\/p>\n

 <\/p><\/blockquote>\n<\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

 <\/p>\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n
There is an abundance\u00a0of opinions\u00a0that will tell you the right wine to drink to match the season, the\u00a0food and the colour\u00a0of your shirt.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

But how much do people\u00a0really know about wine?<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

In 1976 a British wine merchant organised a wine\u00a0tasting\u00a0to prove once and for all the superiority of\u00a0French wine.\u00a0It is now popularly known as the “Judgement of Paris”. The expert judging panel was\u00a0pro-France too with\u00a09 experts\u00a0from France and\u00a01 each from USA and UK. To their collective horror, in a blind taste test the experts ranked a Californian wine as the best in both the red and white wine category.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

In 2001 French\u00a0acedemic Frederic Brochet offered the same wine in two different labels – once as a\u00a0cheap table variety and once as an expensive grand cru. His subjects described the grand cru in flowery terms and the table variety as weak and flat. It was the same wine.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Cut to\u00a02011 where a British psychologist, Richard Wiseman, ran a simple experiment. He bought a lot of wine priced between $5 to $50 and then asked 600 or so participants of a conference to say which one was more expensive. The experiment was run double blind – neither the person offering or the one drinking it knew which wine they were drinking. People could pick the expensive wine only 53% of time. Coin flip,\u00a0anyone.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

 <\/p>\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

 <\/p>\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n
Weight opinion and expertise by domain specific probabilities. Science and medicine are\u00a0high probability domains for known knowns. A doctor will be right 99% of the time for commonly found symptoms. Outside of a few\u00a0exceptions, most physics and math problems do\u00a0have closed form solutions. The experts really know the right answer.\u00a0However matters of taste like art and drinks are different. Expert in such domains\u00a0are\u00a0apostles\u00a0of\u00a0current and past fashions than\u00a0arbiters of any universal truth.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

So what about investment\u00a0experts and stock pickers? I would give them\u00a0slightly more credence than art and wine experts,\u00a0but nowhere close to the sciences. It is not because they are not\u00a0smart. It is just\u00a0the highly probabilistic\u00a0nature of the domain they are operating in where you can make out like bandits on a bad thesis and loose your shirt on a good one. Keep that in mind.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

As an aside, I hope\u00a0one day there will be a similar Judgement of Palo Alto, where to their surprise they will find\u00a0software and products made in\u00a0Bangalore\u00a0are\u00a0better designed than those in California. And we will\u00a0all drink to that!<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

 <\/p>\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

 <\/p>\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n
Happy investing,
\nGaurav
\nCEO | kuvera.in
\n@rustapharian<\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

 <\/p>\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n
Love our newsletter? Share it with friends (\u00a0tweet<\/a>\u00a0|\u00a0WhatsApp<\/a>\u00a0)<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

<\/h4>\n

Interested in how we think about the markets?<\/h5>\n

Read more:\u00a0Zen And The Art Of Investing<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Watch\/hear on YouTube:<\/p>\n