Looking Back, Looking Ahead

The purpose of thinking about the future is not to predict it but to raise people’s hopes. – Freeman Dyson

If you go by this statement of Dyson, the British-American physicist and mathematician known for his work on quantum electrodynamics, then you will understand why brokerages and stock market researchers set targets for the Nifty and/or Sensex every year. So, as 2025 winds down, it’s worth comparing the market soothsayers’ calls from a year ago with reality and then peeking ahead at what they’re saying for 2026. 

Back in late 2024 and early 2025, brokerages’ Nifty 50 targets ranged from the low 25,000s to the high 28,000s. Citi was looking at about 26,000 for end-2025, Goldman Sachs targeted 27,000, Bank of America 26,500, Jefferies 26,600, and Bernstein 26,500. Indian firms predicted similar targets. Kotak Institutional Equities and Axis Securities were cautious at about 26,100 by Dec-2025, whereas ICICI Direct was bullish at 28,800 and Bajaj Broking saw 28,700. 

How does reality compare? The Nifty did hit a fresh record in late 2025: it briefly topped around 26,326 in early December. That means the conservative calls (around 26,000) were almost spot on but the bulls overshot by some margin. In other words, 2025 recorded a modest up move. The Nifty gained roughly 9-10% during the year, hitting record highs in November and December before easing off due to profit-taking, foreign fund outflows and other factors. 

2026 Outlook

With 2025 in the books, the Street has dusted off its crystal balls for 2026 – and the overall tone is still bullish. Most major houses are calling for Nifty to reach the upper 28,000s or around 29,000 by end-2026 (roughly a 10–15% upside from current levels). For instance, Jefferies forecasts 28,300 and Citi expects the Nifty to rise to 28,500 by Dec-2026 while Goldman Sachs as well as Bank of America have set a 29,000 year-end 2026 target. Nomura, meanwhile, has gone even higher – about 29,300. 

Domestic brokerages echo the optimism: Kotak’s base-case scenario is for 29,120 by end-2026 (with a bull-case at 32,032!), and Axis Securities pegs it around 28,100. These targets typically assume continued earnings growth, strong domestic flows and supportive policy. Citi’s analysts invoke a “Goldilocks” scenario of resilient growth and benign inflation to justify their 28,500 call. In fact, they note that headwinds like weak earnings and high tariffs are reversing, setting the stage for about 10% gains. 

In short, most big names are expecting sustained but modest gains in 2026. That’s nothing wild – more a steady creep than a blow-off rally. The consensus top-2026 band is around 28,000–29,000. To be sure, analysts aren’t forecasting Nifty at 40,000 or anything crazy. But compared to 2025’s actual level, they do expect a healthy single-digit to low-double-digit rise. Whether the bulls are right again remains to be seen, but at least the Street seems more confident going into 2026.

The year 2025 taught us that most broker calls were in the right ballpark though the highest forecasts missed the mark. As the year ends, the new 2026 targets suggest much of the same story: a gradual climb upward. We’ll see if the predictions pan out – after all, every year is a new year, and every forecast comes with a pinch of salt.

Heavy Metal

If you thought 2025 belonged to equities, the metals market would like a quiet word. By the time the year wound down, gold, silver and platinum had completely stolen the spotlight. Stocks did fine in parts, bonds kept investors guessing, but the real money quietly moved into things you can hold, stash, and worry less about when the world looks messy.

Gold rose more than 70% in 2025. Silver did not just outperform gold, it embarrassed it, climbing over 140%. Platinum joined the party too, more than doubling over the year. This was not a one-year fluke either. The rally really began in 2024, when gold and silver were already up around 30%. What 2025 did was turn a strong trend into a full-blown stampede.

Gold’s rise had a familiar trigger. Trouble. US tariff threats returned, Russia dug in its heels in Ukraine. When investors get nervous, they reach for gold. Add expectations of US rate cuts and a weaker dollar, and gold did what gold always does in moments like this. It climbed. Then it kept climbing, sailing past $4,500 an ounce and setting new records along the way.

But gold was not just an investor story. Central banks were major buyers again. In 2025 alone, they are estimated to have bought around 850 tonnes of gold worldwide. That is slightly lower than 2024, but still enormous by historical standards. The motivation is clear enough. Countries want less dependence on the dollar, less exposure to US Treasuries, and more assets that sit outside geopolitics. Gold fits that bill neatly. By mid-year, surveys showed that about one in three central banks planned to add more gold over the next couple of years. That kind of official backing tends to make private investors feel braver.

Silver, meanwhile, decided it did not want to be gold’s cheaper cousin anymore. Prices crossed $70 an ounce and just kept going. Part of silver’s appeal came from the same place as gold. Rate cuts, dollar weakness, and nervous money. But silver has an extra advantage. It is also an industrial metal. Electronics, solar panels, and clean energy projects all need it, and supply has been tight for years. The silver market has been running a deficit for roughly five consecutive years, and 2025 did nothing to fix that.

Add to this a surge in investment demand. Silver-backed ETFs sucked up thousands of tonnes. The metal even found its way onto the US critical minerals list, which gave it a new strategic sheen. By year-end, momentum traders piled in, prices looked stretched on technical charts, and yet buyers kept coming. When supply is tight and belief is strong, valuation arguments tend to take a back seat.

Platinum was the surprise act. Long ignored, often dismissed as a niche auto metal, it suddenly woke up. Prices surged past $2,270 an ounce, driven by persistent supply constraints and policy twists. South African mine output remains constrained, and recent signals from Europe about delaying the phase-out of combustion engines revived demand for catalytic converters. That was enough to send platinum flying, up roughly 145% for the year. Palladium tried to keep up but could not quite match the pace.

Looking ahead to 2026, the consensus is cautious optimism. Most forecasts still point higher, though with more bumps along the way. Some banks see gold approaching $4,900 an ounce by the end of 2026. Others whisper about $5,000. Silver and platinum are expected to remain volatile but supported by the same forces that drove them in 2025. Tight supply, industrial demand, and a world that still feels one bad headline away from panic.

The IPO Party

Coming back to equities, it was a record-breaking year on Dalal Street for IPOs: 365 IPOs raised roughly Rs 1.95 lakh crore (about $23 billion), comfortably topping 2024’s haul. Mainboard giants gobbled up almost all the pie – 106 big IPOs accounted for 94% of the money, according to various media reports, while smaller SME issues, though far more numerous, chipped in just the rest. Large flagship deals stole the show, underlining that big, established companies drove fundraising.

So which sectors ruled the roost? Interestingly, 2025 saw a shake-up. NBFCs topped the podium with a share of 26.6%, followed by capital goods, technology, healthcare and consumer durables, according to reports. That’s a change from the auto-telecom-retail mix of 2024; utilities and private banking, hot last year, were nowhere to be seen in 2025. 

Investor appetite was voracious. IPOs in 2024–25 were oversubscribed on average 25 times, in other words. More than half of those over 100 mainboard newcomers are now trading above their offer price, delivering tidy first-day gains. Still, not every debut was a winner – about half of 2025’s IPOs are actually below their issue price in the market, a reminder that deal quality matters even in a boom.

If 2025 was a blockbuster, traders are betting 2026 will be another. Brokers from Kotak to Goldman Sachs reckon $20–25 billion of deals could come. And the “name marquee” list is mouthwatering. Jio Platforms is rumoured to file in the first half of 2026. The National Stock Exchange (NSE) – India’s biggest bourse – has finally cleared most governance hurdles and is expected to float once regulators give the nod.

Others have quietly filed or are rumored to: Walmart-backed PhonePe (digital payments) and quick-delivery startup Zepto are said to have used SEBI’s confidential filing route. Hero Group’s NBFC Hero FinCorp, Swimlane’s Flipkart (after it moved its HQ home), OYO’s parent Oravel Stays, and consumer-tech names like boAt are also in the queue. And retail investors have all but circled the calendars. 

Investors seem unfazed and ready to pile in. As one report notes, over 90 companies have already cleared SEBI’s green light and a similar number are awaiting approval. 

The global outlook for IPOs is also improving. After a sluggish 2022–23, IPO markets picked up in 2024 and early 2025. EY reports that 1215 IPOs raised $121.2 billion in 2024 (just shy of 2023’s $126.1 billion). Asia-Pacific was weak overall – China hit a decade-low of listings– but EMEIA (Europe, Middle East, India, Africa) emerged as the top region by deal count. The Americas rebounded strongly too, led by the US.

Fast forward to 2025: EY finds a broad recovery. In the third quarter of 2025, global deal volume jumped 19% and proceeds 89% year-on-year. In fact, through September 2025 there were 914 IPOs raising $110.1 billion, a 41% jump in average deal size on 2024’s first nine months. 

“Resilient corporate earnings and strong equity-market performance continue to underpin investor confidence,” EY notes. In short, the tailwind of looser policy – and a search for yield in tech/AI-centric companies – has reignited IPO pipelines worldwide.

What to expect for global IPO markets in 2026? EY’s outlook is cautiously upbeat. Broadly, the ingredients – healthy economies, corporate earnings, and still-loose central banks – are there to support continued IPO activity. 

In case you are wondering why we are talking about global IPO outlook, here the context: Latest RBI release shows, outward investment by Indian residents grew to $1.959 in January-October 2025 from $1.268 a year ago. 

Overseas equity investment is emerging as a viable way to ensure that you don’t put all the eggs in one basket

Other Headlines

• Govt gives initial approval to regional airline alHind Air and FlyExpress after IndiGo crisis
• India, New Zealand conclude free trade agreement with aim to double trade
• China starts trade dispute against India over solar cells and IT goods
• Stonepeak, Canadian pension fund CPPIB buy Castrol from BP for $6 billion; make open offer for Castrol India
• Bharti Enterprises, private equity firm Warburg Pincus to buy 49% of appliance maker Haier India
• RBI to infuse $32 billion of liquidity into banking system via open market operations, dollar-rupee swap
• Oyo Hotels gets shareholders’ approval to raise up to Rs 6,650 crore via fresh issue of shares in IPO
• Fortis Healthcare to acquire Bengaluru’s People Tree Hospital for Rs 430 crore
• RBI net sold $11.88 billion in October to arrest rupee’s fall, shows bulletin
• India’s infrastructure output grows 1.8% year on year in November

That’s all for this week. Until next week, happy investing!

Interested in how we think about the markets?

Read more: Zen And The Art Of Investing

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