In this edition, we talk about the demise of Queen Elizabeth II and former Tata Sons chief Cyrus Mistry. We also talk about the growing equity cult in India and the ECB’s unprecedented interest rate hike.
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‘For dust you are, and to dust you shall return…’
The week gone by was yet another sad reminder of how ephemeral and impermanent life can be. You may have all the money and power in the world, but when death comes knocking at your door, none of that will be enough to avoid the unavoidable.
Seven decades after acceding to the British throne, Queen Elizabeth II died on Thursday aged 96. Her death marks the end of what came to be known as the second Elizabethan era, which began in 1952. She has now been succeeded by her eldest son, who, at 73, has taken over as King Charles III.
India, too, saw a high-profile demise late last week, when billionaire businessman and former Tata Sons chief Cyrus Mistry died in a car crash along with a family friend.
Mistry, 54, is survived by his wife and two children, and died just over two months after the demise of his father and one of India’s most prominent Parsi businessmen, Shapoorji Pallonji Mistry, in June this year.
In fact, Mistry’s sudden death came just weeks after India Inc lost one of its poster boys, Rakesh Jhunjhunwala, who left behind a $5.5 billion fortune.
Mistry’s death was also eerily reminiscent of how Princess Diana, the former wife of King Charles III, had died in 1997, in a car crash in France, while she sat on the backseat, apparently not wearing a seat belt.
Mistry was the scion of the multi-billion-dollar construction company the Shapoorji Pallonji Group. But the reticent businessman was known more for his stint as the chief of Tata Sons, which ended in 2016 in an ugly public spat and a legal battle after he was fired and removed from the board of the conglomerate.
The public mudslinging and the bitterness of the last few years between the Tatas and the Mistry family were clearly not forgotten as none of the Tatas, except Ratan Tata’s stepmother, the 92-year-old Simone Tata, were seen at Mistry’s funeral.
The only silver lining in this horrific tragedy perhaps is the fact that it has brought to focus the issue of road safety in a country where more than 1.5 lakh people lose their lives to deadly accidents each year. Road transport minister Nitin Gadkari said in the aftermath of the accident that seat belts will be made mandatory for rear seat car passengers as well.
A ‘Made by Tata’ iPhone?
Talking of the Tatas, the conglomerate may soon be looking to make the iconic iPhone in India. If news reports are to be believed, the Tatas are in talks with Wistron Corp, a Taiwanese supplier to Apple Inc, to set up an electronics manufacturing joint venture in India that will assemble iPhones in the country.
The Tatas hope that if these discussions succeed, they could make the conglomerate a “force in technology manufacturing” and indeed the first Indian company to assemble iPhones, which are currently mainly assembled by Taiwanese manufacturing giants like Wistron and the Foxconn Technology Group.
Not only could a potential deal benefit the Tatas, it could also challenge China’s dominance in the electronics manufacturing industry, which has anyway been hit in the wake of the pandemic-induced lockdowns as well as owing to trade tensions with the US.
Indians joining equity cult?
Talking of firsts, in what is a clear sign of the growing penetration of the stock markets into the Indian economy, the number of demat accounts in India crossed 10 crore in August after 22 lakh more accounts were opened during the month.
In fact, the number of demat accounts has more than doubled since the coronavirus outbreak—India had 4.09 crore demat accounts in March 2020.
Record low interest rates, the need to supplement income as the lockdown led to job losses and hurt businesses, a lack of investment avenues, and time at hand have pushed retail investors towards the stock market.
The trend was also fuelled by the ease of opening an account, the rise in mobile and data penetration and a drop in brokerage fees, with a significant proportion of the new investors coming in from smaller towns and cities.
Interestingly, the number of demat accounts is far greater than the number of people who file income tax returns in India—less than 6 crore. Now, that’s a number the government would really want to see growing!
ECB joins the party
Meanwhile, the European Central Bank (ECB) did something unprecedented this week. The ECB’s 25-member governing council raised its benchmark rate by a whopping 75 basis points (bps). This is its largest ever rate increase and the first time since the launch of the euro in 1999 that the ECB has raised its rates by more than 25 bps.
The ECB’s action follows similar moves by the US Federal Reserve and other central banks across the world as they seek to tame record inflation that is burning a hole in consumers’ pockets and pushing economies towards recession.
Europe, in particular, is staring at a recession after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February jacked up commodity prices. Inflation in the euro zone hit a record 9.1% in August and may rise into double digits in coming months.
The mega increase in rates is aimed at raising the cost of borrowing for consumers, governments and businesses. This, in theory at least, is meant to slow spending and investment and cool off soaring prices by reducing demand for goods. But the reality is far more difficult to control.
India’s priorities
Back home, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said this week that inflation wasn’t a “red-letter” priority and that the government was focused more on job creation and wealth distribution. The comments come at a time when inflation has remained well above the central bank’s comfort zone for many months and the government is facing flak for the lack of jobs as well as growing inequality in what is now the world’s fifth-biggest economy.
Elsewhere, Indian bankers are worried that credit growth seems to be outpacing deposit growth. News reports say that since May, while retail deposits grew by 2.5%, credit growth soared 15% as of July end, on a year-on-year basis.
One key reason for this is perhaps the fact that banks have not been passing on the interest rate hikes to their deposit accounts. While policy rates went up by 140 basis points during the period, bulk deposit and retail deposit rates have gone up by 120-200 basis points and 40-80 bps, respectively.
This means depositors continue to get a negative real interest rate despite rising interest rates.
Little wonder, then, that India’s traditionally FD-loving investors are now flocking to the country’s stock market.
Market wrap
While deposit rates may be struggling to inch up, the markets ended the week firmly in the green, with both the benchmark indices—Sensex and Nifty—ending the five-day period more than 1% higher.
The Nifty stocks that gained the most this week were Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone, lenders Yes Bank and Axis Bank, cement makers Ultratech Cement and Grasim Industries, and FMCG and tobacco major ITC.
The top Nifty losers during the week were state owned natural gas transporter GAIL India, automakers Bajaj Auto, Tata Motors and Maruti Suzuki, and fertiliser maker UPL.
Other headlines:
- India’s services sector PMI expands to 57.2 in August from 55.5 in July
- Automobile retail sales in India climb 8.3% in August, says FADA
- Reliance Power to raise debt of up to Rs 1,200 crore from Varde Partners
- Tamilnad Mercantile Bank IPO subscribed 1.91 times on day three
- DreamFolks Services IPO shares debut with 56% premium at Rs 509
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Sembcorp Industries sells India unit to Tanweer Infra $1.47 bln (BS)
- Enforcement Directorate arrests former NSE CEO Narain in money-laundering case
- Reliance to acquire solar digitisation platform SenseHawk for $32 million
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Govt looks to privatise fertiliser PSUs; approves revised policy on railway land leasing
The week ahead
The government will release the retail inflation print for August and industrial output data for July next week in the latest indications of the state of the economy.
Until next week, happy investing!
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