On the evening of September 24, 2007, arch rivals India and Pakistan fought intensely in the final of the first ICC Men’s T20 World Cup. At the Wanderers Stadium in Johannesburg, the final match came down to its final over.
India skipper Mahendra Singh Dhoni handed the ball to Joginder Sharma—a rather bold choice given that he wasn’t an established name in international formats—at a time when Pakistan batter Misbah-ul-Haq was on a rampage.
Pakistan needed six runs in four balls for a victory when one of Misbah’s scoops unexpectedly found Sreesanth at short fine leg. With that, India won the match with five runs and the trophy.
That moment did more than just decide a final. It established proof that a 20-over format could compress a full contest into a few hours, fit television schedules and hold mass attention. Within a year, that insight translated into structure. The Indian Premier League was launched in April 2008 with eight franchises sold for a combined $723 million.
The early assumption was straightforward: a shorter format, built for broadcast, could expand both reach and revenue beyond what traditional formats allowed. The IPL was the institutional response to that shift.
Modelled loosely on franchise football leagues, it combined city-based teams, player auctions and centralised media rights. What began as an experiment with format was soon being organised into a commercial system.
In its early years, ownership was as much about visibility as returns. Central broadcast revenues were limited, sponsorship markets were still developing, and franchise-level monetisation was restricted to tickets and team sponsors.
The model was high on spectacle, but its long-term economics remained uncertain. The economics have since expanded sharply. For instance, the IPL’s media rights for the 2023-2027 period were sold for about $6.2 billion. The addition of new teams in 2021 and the launch of the Women’s Premier League in 2023 suggested the model could be broadened.
Against this backdrop, the recent sale of Royal Challengers Bengaluru and Rajasthan Royals brings the shift into sharper focus.
A consortium of the Aditya Birla Group, the Times of India Group, and US investment firms Blackstone and Bolt Ventures is buying RCB from United Spirits (now controlled by Diageo) at a valuation of around Rs 16,660 crore, or about $1.78 billion. RCB was acquired in 2008 by United Spirits, then controlled by Mallya, for around Rs 450 crore, or $112 million at the time. That reflects a jump of 16 times in valuation in dollar terms and 36 times in rupee terms!
Similarly, a group of US-based sports investors led by tech entrepreneur Kal Somani is set to buy Rajasthan Royals for over Rs 15,000 crore ($1.6 billion). That’s nearly 24 times in dollar terms and 57 times in rupee terms when compared with the team’s valuation in 2008!
The contrast with earlier ownership is also notable. The first set of IPL owners were largely promoter-led businesses and individuals, including many film stars, where teams functioned partly as brand extensions. From the likes of Mukesh Ambani and Vijay Mallya to Shah Rukh Khan and Preity Zinta.
The newer structure reflects institutional strength that combines diversified capital, media distribution and experience in sports investments globally. That repricing is being driven by some observable shifts: Central media rights have expanded in scale and visibility; digital streaming has widened access beyond television; sponsorship markets have deepened; and fan engagement is increasingly monetised through licensing, merchandising and platform integrations.
What is visible here is capital moving from brand-led ownership towards more specialised investment structures. But what remains less clear is how far these assumptions can extend.
The current valuations embed expectations of sustained media growth, continued audience expansion, and deeper monetisation per fan. But whether these can compound at the same pace is still uncertain.
Resolve Conflict, Gift MFs
Moving from the cricket field to the regulatory arena, there is a sense of measured adjustment in how the Securities and Exchange Board of India is approaching markets right now. The working assumption had been that tighter oversight would continue to define the regulatory stance after a series of governance concerns. What this week’s SEBI board decisions suggest instead is a more balanced posture – one that combines operational easing with selective tightening.
SEBI eased settlement rules for foreign portfolio investors to net settle their trades. This will help FPIs, which execute multiple trades a day, reduce trading costs. Currently, FPIs must settle each trade separately, which ties up capital. Net settlement is also likely to help exchange-traded funds and index funds, especially on index rebalancing days.
SEBI also eased constraints for REITs and InvITs, and provided greater flexibility for alternative investment funds in winding up structures. These measures show there is a clear push towards reducing friction.
But that easing is paired with sharper oversight. The revised ‘fit and proper’ framework moves away from automatic disqualification triggered by the filing of an FIR or chargesheet, towards a more principles-based approach. At the same time, expanding disqualification to include convictions for economic offences suggests the regulator is trying to draw clearer, more deliberate boundaries.
The most notable shift, however, may be inward. A strengthened conflict-of-interest framework for SEBI’s own members and officials – including tighter disclosure norms and an ethics oversight mechanism – signals an effort to reinforce credibility at the source. This comes after former SEBI chief Madhabi Puri Buch faced allegations of conflict of interest from Hindenburg Research over her links to the Adani group.
In a move that will directly affect mutual fund investors, SEBI proposed allowing gift cards or gift prepaid payment instruments (PPIs) for mutual fund investments. This is aimed at improving financial inclusion by onboarding new investors. Essentially, the proposal would allow buyers of gift cards or gift PPIs to transfer them to recipients, who could then use these instruments to subscribe to mutual fund units for up to Rs 50,000 within a year, SEBI said.
There are also smaller signals embedded in the details. Comments around governance standards, following a recent board-level exit at HDFC Bank, suggest that scrutiny of institutional behaviour is not easing.
What ties these moves together is a rebalancing. Markets are still trying to assess how this mix of flexibility and oversight will play out. The question is less whether regulation is tightening or loosening, and more how it is being restructured to accommodate a more complex, institutionalised market. As capital deepens and ownership structures evolve, the role of the regulator tends to shift with it – from intervention towards calibration.
Oil’s Not Well
Turning from the capital markets towards the broader economy, the US-Israel war on Iran has started affecting several sectors from food to fertiliser even as the energy sector remains in deep flux.
On Friday, the Indian government slashed the excise duty on petrol from Rs 13 per litre to Rs 3, and cut the duty on diesel to zero from Rs 10 per litre. Meanwhile, private refiner Nayara increased petrol prices by Rs 5 and diesel by Rs 3. While the government sought to assure that India had enough fuel supplies, people across the country lined up to fill up tanks for their cars and bikes.
Meanwhile, economists have started lowering India’s GDP growth forecast and revising inflation estimates higher.
Goldman Sachs this week cut its 2026 growth estimate for India for the second time this month. It now expects the Indian economy to grow by 5.9% in calendar year 2026, down from 6.5% it predicted on March 13 and compared to its pre-war forecast of 7%. It also forecasts a 50-basis-point hike in interest rates and expects inflation in India to touch 4.6% in 2026 from the earlier expectation of 3.9%.
On the positive side, Iran indicated that vessels from a set of “friendly nations”, including India, may be allowed to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. For import-dependent economies like India, continued access through Hormuz reduces the risk of abrupt supply shocks and sharp price spikes.
Even if transit risks ease, the focus shifts upstream – to production. Disruptions to energy infrastructure across parts of the Middle East complicate the picture. The issue now is less about whether oil can move, and more about how much of it is available to move in the first place. This creates a split in how risk is being priced.
On one side, shipping and insurance risks may moderate if passage remains open for select countries. On the other, supply-side uncertainty – around output levels, repair timelines and spare capacity – continues to linger. The result is not a clean resolution, but a redistribution of risk across the value chain.
There is also the question of durability. Markets are still trying to assess whether such transit permissions represent a stable policy stance or a tactical, time-bound adjustment. Energy flows depend not just on access, but on predictability. For now, one constraint appears to be easing, even as others remain in place.
Energy markets rarely resolve in a single step. They tend to adjust in layers – first through sentiment, then through flows, and eventually through supply.
Private Credit
Another sector attracting attention for the wrong reasons is private credit. There is a growing sense of unease in private credit markets globally.
Over the past decade, private credit has expanded rapidly, particularly in the US and Europe. Industry estimates place the global market at over $1.5 trillion, up sharply from under $500 billion a decade ago. The shift was driven by tighter banking regulation after 2008, which reduced banks’ appetite for certain types of lending, while non-bank lenders stepped in to fill that gap.
Recent developments suggest the first broad-based test of that model. Large private credit funds have begun to face investor redemption requests. In some cases, managers have imposed limits on withdrawals. At the same time, there are increasing reports of stress in underlying loans, particularly in sectors exposed to higher interest rates and slowing demand.
The mechanics of the system are important to understand. These funds lend to companies through instruments that are not publicly traded. When investors seek liquidity, the assets cannot be easily sold. This creates a mismatch between investor expectations and the nature of the underlying loans.
There are also indirect linkages to the banking system. Global banks have provided financing lines to private credit funds, helping the sector scale. Estimates suggest US banks alone have exposure running into hundreds of billions of dollars, though much of it sits outside traditional loan books.
So far, the stress remains contained. Default rates are rising but are still below levels seen in past credit cycles. Many lenders are extending loan tenures or restructuring terms rather than forcing immediate defaults, delaying loss recognition.
What about India?
India’s private credit market is estimated at $60–70 billion and has grown steadily in recent years. It has been active in sectors such as real estate, infrastructure, and mid-market corporate lending, areas where bank financing can be constrained. Both domestic and global funds have increased allocations.
For now, there are no clear signs of systemic stress in India. However, the same structural features apply: illiquid assets, reliance on refinancing, and sensitivity to interest rates. Any prolonged global tightening or funding pressure could begin to transmit through capital flows and refinancing conditions.
What remains unclear is how this adjustment evolves. Markets are still trying to assess whether this is an early-stage recalibration within a growing asset class or the beginning of a more typical credit cycle, where defaults become more visible.
Market wrap
India’s stock markets slipped for a fifth week in a row on fears over the Iran war’s impact on the economy and corporate earnings. Foreign outflows and a weak rupee made matters worse.
Both the Nifty 50 and the BSE Sensex fell about 1.3% this week while the small-caps slipped 0.6% and the mid-caps lost 1.4%. The five-week decline is the longest stretch of losses in about eight months. The Nifty and Sensex have now shed 9.5% each since the US and Israel attacked Iran on February 28.
Foreign portfolio investors remained net sellers this week; they have sold equities worth more than $12 billion in March. Meanwhile, the rupee plunged to a new record low of 94.8125 per dollar.
State-run oil producer ONGC was the top performer this week, climbing 6.3% on high oil prices. It was followed by engineering giant Larsen & Toubro, which jumped 3.7%.
IT stocks mostly ended higher, with HCLT Tech rising 2.4% and Infosys gaining over 1%. TCS was an exception and closed slightly lower. Hospital chains Apollo and Max Healthcare, drugmaker Sun Pharma, and Bajaj Finance were among the other major gainers.
On the other end of the spectrum, Adani Enterprises was the top loser, followed by Bharat Electronics and Coal India. All three lost over 5% this week.
Among index heavyweights, Reliance Industries slid almost 4.8% while HDFC Bank fell 3.1%. Trent, SBI, Shriram Finance, JSW Steel, Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles, and Titan were among other major losers.
Other Headlines
- Infosys to acquire US firms Optimum Healthcare IT, Stratus for a total of $560 million
- Temasek-backed Manipal Health files DRHP for IPO, to raise Rs 8,000 crore in fresh issue
- Govt asks auto industry to tighten production schedules, save fuel as Iran war hurts supplies
- Russia-backed Indian refiner Nayara Energy raises petrol price by Rs 5 per litre, diesel by Rs 3
- Vedanta unit Cairn cuts crude output by 10% due to shipping complications from Iran war
- Google to label SEBI-registered investment apps on its app store amid crackdown on fraud
- Thyssenkrupp’s talks with Jindal Steel to sell steel unit falter on pension, energy costs
- French firm Vinci to buy nine toll highways in India from Macquarie for Rs 15,000 crore
- Govt retains headline retail inflation target at 4% for five years following review
- Union Cabinet approves Rs 28,840 crore for UDAN 2.0 scheme to boost air connectivity
- Govt tables companies law amendment bill to allow more buybacks, fast-track mergers
That’s all for this week. Until next week, happy investing!
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