Data discoveries of the week. this week, we curate charts and data on India’s opportunity to become the 3rd largest economy, tech layoff predictions, market performance under various US presidents and much more.
- We are certainly keeping our fingers crossed for this.
🇮🇳 "India has the conditions in place for an economic boom fueled by offshoring, manufacturing, the energy transition and the advanced digital infrastructure. These drivers will make it the world's third-largest economy and stock market before the end of the decade.” – $MS$FIH.U pic.twitter.com/yXYPHHVIET
— Trevor Scott 🇺🇦 (@TidefallCapital) November 20, 2022
2. India’s largest banks – HDFC, ICICI & SBI – gain market share in personal loans.
Top 3 banks have gained market share in Personal Loans category.
Difficult to compete in a commodity business when you are u against lowest cost manufacturers (cheap cost of deposits)
Source; Macquarie pic.twitter.com/BCRXi0470d
— Intrinsic Compounding (@soicfinance) November 22, 2022
3. US personal saving rate lowest for the decade, no thanks to credit card debts.
I’m sad about this.
US personal savings rate at all time lows while $1 trillion in credit card debt at all time highs. ☹️ pic.twitter.com/P5UyqXDcUA
— Samantha LaDuc (@SamanthaLaDuc) November 20, 2022
4. Household savings are also at lowest since 2008 owing to the post-pandemic slump.
In 2019, pre-pandemic, households saved 8.8% of their disposable income. That saving rate jumped to 16.8% in 2020, the highest on record. In 2021 the saving rate moderated to 11.8%, and in September it stood at 3.1%, near its lowest level since 2008. https://t.co/02IjpWFQzg pic.twitter.com/IiE2ukgags
— Lisa Abramowicz (@lisaabramowicz1) November 21, 2022
5. Here’s the long view. Average returns of different assets since 2000.
Since 2000, the market has returned 6.46% nominal, 3.83% real.
10% long term returns on the S&P 500 are not a foregone conclusion.
The actual experience of most investors is worse than that because they get aggressive at bubble peaks and sell at lows. pic.twitter.com/sSokMC8AAy
— ValueStockGeek (@ValueStockGeek) November 20, 2022
6. Rising hopes for falling inflation rates in Germany? Producer prices record their biggest every monthly drop.
Peak Inflation in one chart. German Producer Prices plunged by 4.2% MoM in Oct, the first month-on-month decrease since May 2020 (–0.4% on April 2020) AND the biggest monthly drop in the history of PPI. pic.twitter.com/EyZgvWtcBV
— Holger Zschaepitz (@Schuldensuehner) November 21, 2022
7. The prices of shipping container are finally going down, providing a much needed respite to world trade.
Our global nightmare of far-too-expensive container shipping is finally over pic.twitter.com/DU9AWKy1rq
— Neoliberal 🌐🇺🇦 (@ne0liberal) November 21, 2022
8. It’s called skimming the froth.
'The stock market losses that we've observed year-to-date are merely a give-back of the frothiest segment of the recent market bubble. Our most reliable valuation measures still match the extremes we observed in 1929, 2000 and the 2020 pre-pandemic high.' https://t.co/oGPiHws6xC pic.twitter.com/KoV4FHE9HC
— Jesse Felder (@jessefelder) November 21, 2022
9. The layoff season is not over yet, the worst might be still ahead of us.
— Pantheon Macro (@PantheonMacro) November 22, 2022
10. German energy consuming companies are being forced optimising on efficiency. But if this were possible, shouldn’t have this been done anyway?
This is really remarkable: 75% of German (gas consuming) companies are saving gas without reducing their output. And almost 40% say they could reduce gas consumption even more without producing less. https://t.co/TdOUJinAGL pic.twitter.com/p6ZliTSD2x
— Janis Kluge (@jakluge) November 22, 2022
11. A look at per capita carbon dioxide emissions over last 20 years for some of the leading European countries vs China. India’s per capita CO₂ emissions for the same duration ranges from 0.91 t to 1.93 t.
Per capita CO₂ emissions over the last two decades.
There are now several European countries – including Spain, France, and the UK – that have lower emissions than China.
These are adjusted for trade, as the subtitle says. pic.twitter.com/Y8ovBmRgFC
— Max Roser (@MaxCRoser) November 23, 2022
12. How have the markets performed under different US presidents?
Yr 2 of a new President is historically weak, we can check that off in '22.
But yr 3 is up 20% on average and yr 4 up 12%.
Incredibly, looking at the past 20 years of yr 3 and 4 under a new President the S&P 500 was lower only ONCE. And that was in 2011 when it was -0.00%. pic.twitter.com/zoA4fwj6u8
— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) November 22, 2022
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